Assessing inflation targeting through intervention analysis

Alvaro Angeriz and Philip Arestis

Oxford Economic Papers, 2008, vol. 60, issue 2, 293-317

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to deal with the empirical aspects of the 'new' monetary policy framework, known as Inflation Targeting. Applying Intervention Analysis to multivariate Structural Time Series models, which avoids certain biases encountered in the use of conventional regression estimators, new empirical evidence is produced in the case of a number of OECD countries. These results demonstrate that although Inflation Targeting has gone hand-in-hand with low inflation, the strategy was introduced well after inflation had begun its downward trend. But, then, Inflation Targeting 'locks in' low inflation rates. The evidence produced in this paper suggests that non-Inflation Targeting central banks have also been successful on this score. Copyright 2008 , Oxford University Press.

Date: 2008
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