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A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction

Ivo Welch () and Amit Goyal ()

Review of Financial Studies, 2008, vol. 21, issue 4, 1455-1508

Abstract: Our article comprehensively reexamines the performance of variables that have been suggested by the academic literature to be good predictors of the equity premium. We find that by and large, these models have predicted poorly both in-sample (IS) and out-of-sample (OOS) for 30 years now; these models seem unstable, as diagnosed by their out-of-sample predictions and other statistics; and these models would not have helped an investor with access only to available information to profitably time the market. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

Date: 2008
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Working Paper: A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction (2006) Downloads
Working Paper: A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction (2004) Downloads
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