Details about Ivo Welch

Homepage:	http://www.ivo-welch.info
Workplace:	Finance Group, Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA), (more information at EDIRC) Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Ivo Welch.

Last updated 2024-10-08. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pwe95

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Working Papers

2024

1. The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Explained, Evaluated, Replaced
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2021

2. A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction II
   Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute View citations (15)
   Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2006)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2004) View citations (53)
   See also Journal Article A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction, The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies (2008) View citations (1697) (2008)
3. Information Cascades and Social Learning
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (7)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2021) View citations (6)
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2021) View citations (6)
   See also Journal Article Information Cascades and Social Learning, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association (2024) (2024)

2020

4. The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
   See also Journal Article The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd, Journal of Finance, American Finance Association (2022) View citations (18) (2022)

2019

5. Simpler Better Market Betas
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article Simply Better Market Betas, Critical Finance Review, now publishers (2022) View citations (1) (2022)

2018

6. Are Interest Rates Really Low?
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)

2016

7. Levered Returns
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2011

8. A Model of Optimal Government Bailouts
   Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics View citations (1)

2010

9. A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades
   Levine's Working Paper Archive, David K. Levine View citations (110)
   See also Journal Article A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (1992) View citations (2127) (1992)

2009

10. An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (1)
    Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2009)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2001) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness, Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell (2002) View citations (41) (2002)
11. The Costs of Bankruptcy
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management

2006

12. Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-Proof Performance Measures
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    See also Journal Article Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-proof Performance Measures, The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies (2007) View citations (213) (2007)

2005

13. Information Cascades and Observational Learning
    Working Paper Series, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics View citations (1)

2004

14. A Note On 'Predicting Returns With Financial Ratios'
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
15. Investor Sentiment Measures
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (64)
16. The Optimal Concentration of Creditors
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2001) View citations (2)
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2004) View citations (1)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2002) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The Optimal Concentration of Creditors, Journal of Finance, American Finance Association (2005) View citations (67) (2005)
17. Who Should Pay for Bankruptcy Costs?
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (3)
    Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2004)
    See also Journal Article Who Should Pay for Bankruptcy Costs?, The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press (2005) View citations (8) (2005)

2003

18. Capital Structure and Stock Returns
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2003) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Capital Structure and Stock Returns, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (2004) View citations (377) (2004)
19. Liquidity and Financial Market Runs
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (3)
    Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2003) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Liquidity and Financial Market Runs, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (2004) View citations (108) (2004)
20. On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (34)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2001) View citations (215)
    University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA (1997) View citations (2)
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2003)
    See also Journal Article On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs, Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell (2001) View citations (217) (2001)

2002

21. A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing and Allocations
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (64)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (686)
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2002) View citations (683)
    See also Journal Article A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations, Journal of Finance, American Finance Association (2002) View citations (669) (2002)
22. Columbus' Egg: The Real Determinant of Capital Structure
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
23. Financial Market Runs
    University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA View citations (4)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (5)
24. Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (64)
    Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2002) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios, Management Science, INFORMS (2003) View citations (350) (2003)
25. Sharpening Sharpe Ratios
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (44)
    Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2002) View citations (44)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (49)
26. The Top Achievements, Challenges, and Failures of Finance
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2002)

2001

27. The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (36)

2000

28. Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (104)
    See also Journal Article Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies, The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press (2000) View citations (109) (2000)

1999

29. A Theory of Legal Presumptions
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article A Theory of Legal Presumptions, The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press (2000) View citations (74) (2000)

1998

30. A Theory of Dividends Based on Tax Clienteles
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (4)
    Also in Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article A Theory of Dividends Based on Tax Clienteles, Journal of Finance, American Finance Association (2000) View citations (289) (2000)
31. Asymmetry and Power: Can Ethnic Dominance Minimize Conflict?
    University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA View citations (2)

1996

32. The Effect Of Socially Activist Investment Policies On The Financial Markets: Evidence From The South African Boycott
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    Also in Finance, University of California at Los Angeles (1995)
    See also Journal Article The Effect of Socially Activist Investment Policies on the Financial Markets: Evidence from the South African Boycott, The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press (1999) View citations (121) (1999)

1995

33. Earnings Management and The Post-Issue Underperformance in Seasoned Equity Offerings
    Finance, University of California at Los Angeles View citations (18)
34. Why is Bankdebt Senior? A Theory of Priority Among Creditors
    Finance, University of California at Los Angeles View citations (2)

1994

35. The Cross-sectional Determinants of Corporate Capital Expenditures: A Multinational Comparison
    Finance, University of California at Los Angeles View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The Cross-Sectional Determinants Of Corporate Capital Expenditures: A Multinational Comparison, Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management (2000) View citations (3) (2000)

1990

36. BONDHOLDER LOSSES IN LEVERAGED BUYOUTS
    Working Papers, Columbia - Graduate School of Business View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Bondholder Losses in Leveraged Buyouts, The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies (1993) View citations (101) (1993)

Undated

37. Institutional Memory, Inertia and Impulsiveness
    Finance, University of California at Los Angeles

Journal Articles

2024

1. Information Cascades and Social Learning
   Journal of Economic Literature, 2024, 62, (3), 1040-93
   See also Working Paper Information Cascades and Social Learning, Papers (2021) View citations (7) (2021)

2022

2. Simply Better Market Betas
   Critical Finance Review, 2022, 11, (1), 37-64 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Simpler Better Market Betas, NBER Working Papers (2019) View citations (7) (2019)
3. The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd
   Journal of Finance, 2022, 77, (3), 1489-1527 View citations (18)
   See also Working Paper The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd, NBER Working Papers (2020) View citations (11) (2020)

2020

4. Asset Redeployability, Liquidation Value, and Endogenous Capital Structure Heterogeneity
   Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2020, 55, (5), 1619-1656 View citations (3)
5. Symmetric and Asymmetric Market Betas and Downside Risk
   The Review of Financial Studies, 2020, 33, (6), 2772-2795 View citations (8)

2019

6. Editorial: An Opinionated FAQ
   Critical Finance Review, 2019, 8, (1-2), 19-24
7. Introduction
   Critical Finance Review, 2019, 8, (1-2), 25-28
8. Reproducing, Extending, Updating, Replicating, Reexamining, and Reconciling
   Critical Finance Review, 2019, 8, (1-2), 301-304 View citations (6)

2017

9. Best Practice for Cost-of-Capital Estimates
   Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2017, 52, (2), 427-463 View citations (16)
10. Do Powerful Politicians Really Cause Corporate Downsizing?
    Journal of Political Economy, 2017, 125, (6), 2225 - 2231 View citations (5)
11. Extended Stock Returns in Response to S&P 500 Index Changes
    The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 2017, 7, (2), 172-208 View citations (12)

2016

12. Contracting Externalities and Mandatory Menus in the US Corporate Bankruptcy Code
    The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 2016, 32, (2), 395-432 View citations (2)
13. Designing Corporate Bailouts
    Journal of Law and Economics, 2016, 59, (1), 75 - 104 View citations (1)
14. Plausibility: A Fair & Balanced View of 30 Years of Progress in Ecologics
    Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, 2016, 10, (2-4), 376-412 View citations (1)
15. The (Time-Varying) Importance of Disaster Risk
    Financial Analysts Journal, 2016, 72, (5), 14-30

2015

16. Estimation of heterogeneous autoregressive parameters with short panel data
    Journal of Econometrics, 2015, 188, (1), 219-235 View citations (10)

2014

17. Referee Recommendations
    The Review of Financial Studies, 2014, 27, (9), 2773-2804 View citations (11)

2013

18. A Critique of Recent Quantitative and Deep-Structure Modeling in Capital Structure Research and Beyond
    Critical Finance Review, 2013, 2, (1), 131-172 View citations (9)
19. A Model of Operational Slack: The Short-Run, Medium-Run, and Long-Run Consequences of Limited Attention Capacity
    The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 2013, 29, (1), 2-34 View citations (1)
20. Leverage and preemptive selling of financial institutions
    Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2013, 22, (2), 123-151 View citations (5)

2011

21. Two Common Problems in Capital Structure Research: The Financial‐Debt‐To‐Asset Ratio and Issuing Activity Versus Leverage Changes
    International Review of Finance, 2011, 11, (1), 1-17 View citations (87)

2008

22. A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction
    The Review of Financial Studies, 2008, 21, (4), 1455-1508 View citations (1697)
    See also Working Paper A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction II, Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series (2021) View citations (15) (2021)

2007

23. Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-proof Performance Measures
    The Review of Financial Studies, 2007, 20, (5), 1503-1546 View citations (213)
    See also Working Paper Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-Proof Performance Measures, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2006) (2006)

2006

24. The Costs of Bankruptcy: Chapter 7 Liquidation versus Chapter 11 Reorganization
    Journal of Finance, 2006, 61, (3), 1253-1303 View citations (225)

2005

25. The Optimal Concentration of Creditors
    Journal of Finance, 2005, 60, (5), 2193-2212 View citations (67)
    See also Working Paper The Optimal Concentration of Creditors, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2004) (2004)
26. Who Should Pay for Bankruptcy Costs?
    The Journal of Legal Studies, 2005, 34, (2), 295-341 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Who Should Pay for Bankruptcy Costs?, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2004) View citations (3) (2004)

2004

27. Capital Structure and Stock Returns
    Journal of Political Economy, 2004, 112, (1), 106-131 View citations (377)
    See also Working Paper Capital Structure and Stock Returns, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2003) (2003)
28. Liquidity and Financial Market Runs
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2004, 119, (1), 135-158 View citations (108)
    See also Working Paper Liquidity and Financial Market Runs, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2003) View citations (3) (2003)

2003

29. Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios
    Management Science, 2003, 49, (5), 639-654 View citations (350)
    See also Working Paper Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios, NBER Working Papers (2002) View citations (64) (2002)

2002

30. A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations
    Journal of Finance, 2002, 57, (4), 1795-1828 View citations (669)
    See also Working Paper A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing and Allocations, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2002) View citations (64) (2002)
31. An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness
    Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 2002, 11, (3), 379-421 View citations (41)
    See also Working Paper An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2009) View citations (1) (2009)

2001

32. On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs
    Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 2001, 10, (3), 301-330 View citations (217)
    See also Working Paper On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2003) View citations (34) (2003)

2000

33. A Theory of Dividends Based on Tax Clienteles
    Journal of Finance, 2000, 55, (6), 2499-2536 View citations (289)
    See also Working Paper A Theory of Dividends Based on Tax Clienteles, Yale School of Management Working Papers (1998) View citations (4) (1998)
34. A Theory of Legal Presumptions
    The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 2000, 16, (1), 1-49 View citations (74)
    See also Working Paper A Theory of Legal Presumptions, Yale School of Management Working Papers (1999) View citations (4) (1999)
35. Herding among security analysts
    Journal of Financial Economics, 2000, 58, (3), 369-396 View citations (245)
36. The Cross-Sectional Determinants Of Corporate Capital Expenditures: A Multinational Comparison
    Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), 2000, 52, (2), 103-136 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper The Cross-sectional Determinants of Corporate Capital Expenditures: A Multinational Comparison, Finance (1994) View citations (3) (1994)
37. Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies
    The Journal of Business, 2000, 73, (4), 501-37 View citations (109)
    See also Working Paper Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2000) View citations (104) (2000)

1999

38. The Effect of Socially Activist Investment Policies on the Financial Markets: Evidence from the South African Boycott
    The Journal of Business, 1999, 72, (1), 35-89 View citations (121)
    See also Working Paper The Effect Of Socially Activist Investment Policies On The Financial Markets: Evidence From The South African Boycott, Yale School of Management Working Papers (1996) (1996)

1998

39. Earnings management and the underperformance of seasoned equity offerings
    Journal of Financial Economics, 1998, 50, (1), 63-99 View citations (461)
40. Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1998, 12, (3), 151-170 View citations (606)

1997

41. How Firms Make Capital Expenditure Decisions: Financial Signals, Internal Cash Flows, Income Taxes and the Tax Reform Act of 1986
    Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 1997, 9, (3), 227-50 View citations (4)
42. Why Is Bank Debt Senior? A Theory of Asymmetry and Claim Priority Based on Influence Costs
    The Review of Financial Studies, 1997, 10, (4), 1203-36 View citations (88)

1996

43. Culture, Information, and Screening Discrimination
    Journal of Political Economy, 1996, 104, (3), 542-71 View citations (178)
44. Equity offerings following the IPO theory and evidence
    Journal of Corporate Finance, 1996, 2, (3), 227-259 View citations (20)
45. Issuer Expenses and Legal Liability in Initial Public Offerings
    Journal of Law and Economics, 1996, 39, (2), 545-602 View citations (157)
46. Rational herding in financial economics
    European Economic Review, 1996, 40, (3-5), 603-615 View citations (383)

1995

47. Corporate research & development investments international comparisons
    Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1995, 19, (2-3), 443-470 View citations (162)

1993

48. An empirical investigation of IPO returns and subsequent equity offerings
    Journal of Financial Economics, 1993, 34, (2), 153-175 View citations (111)
49. Bondholder Losses in Leveraged Buyouts
    The Review of Financial Studies, 1993, 6, (4), 959-82 View citations (101)
    See also Working Paper BONDHOLDER LOSSES IN LEVERAGED BUYOUTS, Working Papers (1990) View citations (4) (1990)

1992

50. A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades
    Journal of Political Economy, 1992, 100, (5), 992-1026 View citations (2127)
    See also Working Paper A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades, Levine's Working Paper Archive (2010) View citations (110) (2010)
51. Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades
    Journal of Finance, 1992, 47, (2), 695-732 View citations (399)

1991

52. An Empirical Examination of Models of Contract Choice in Initial Public Offerings
    Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1991, 26, (4), 497-518 View citations (9)

Editor

1. German Economic Review
   Verein für Socialpolitik