Measuring Vulnerability to U.S. Foreign Economic Sanctions

Hossein Askari (askari@gwu.edu), John Forrer, Jiawen Yang (jwyang@gwu.edu) and Tarek Hachem

Business Economics, 2005, vol. 40, issue 2, 55 pages

Abstract: This study concentrates on the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to demonstrate a way to improve the consensus forecasts of interest rates. It promotes the notion that, in improving the survey forecast accuracy of a variable, one should investigate the usefulness of the predictive information contained in the survey forecasts of other theoretically relevant variables. This idea has been applied to the SPF forecasts of the 3-month Treasury-bill rate, which are shown to be one-sided for 2001.1-2003.4. We improve the accuracy of these forecasts by exploiting the predictive information contained in the SPF forecasts of inflation and output growth. We thus recommend that the possible improvement should be investigated before such interestrate forecasts are utilized for decision-making.Business Economics (2005) 40, 41–55; doi:10.2145/20050205

Date: 2005
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v40/n2/pdf/be200513a.pdf Link to full text PDF (application/pdf)
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v40/n2/full/be200513a.html Link to full text HTML (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:buseco:v:40:y:2005:i:2:p:41-55

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11369

Access Statistics for this article

Business Economics is currently edited by Charles Steindel

More articles in Business Economics from Palgrave Macmillan, National Association for Business Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla (sonal.shukla@springer.com) and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (indexing@springernature.com).