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Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

Serhan Cevik () and Mohammad Rahmati
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Mohammad Rahmati: Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Street, 1458889694, Tehran, Iran

Comparative Economic Studies, 2015, vol. 57, issue 4, 569-597

Abstract: This paper provides an empirical analysis of the principal determinants of post-conflict economic transitions during the period 1960–2010 using a dynamic panel estimation approach. In addition to demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce a novel measure of conflict recurrence risk, estimated with a logistic regression approach controlling for unobserved fixed effects in a non-linear probability model. The empirical results show that the risk of conflict recurrence is a significant determinant of post-conflict economic performance, even after controlling for a broad set of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional factors.

Date: 2015
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