Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

Serhan Cevik and Mohammad Rahmati

No 2013/002, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce an estimated risk of conflict recurrence as an explanatory variable in the growth regression, because post-conflict countries have a tendency to relapse into subsequent conflicts even years after the cessation of violence. The empirical results show that domestic factors, including the estimated probability of conflict recurrence, as well as a range of external variables, contribute to post-conflict economic performance.

Keywords: WP; natural resource; growth rate; opportunity cost; Civil conflict; conflict recurrence risk; growth; institutions; geography; structural reforms; dynamic panel estimation; risk of conflict recurrence; physical capital; per capita income; time series; Intra-state conflict; Human capital; Natural resources; Personal income; Terms of trade; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49
Date: 2013-01-04
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions (2015)
Journal Article: Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions (2015)
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