Understanding Price Movements in Point-Spread Betting Markets: Evidence from NCAA Basketball

Brad Humphreys, Rodney Paul and Andrew Weinbach

Eastern Economic Journal, 2014, vol. 40, issue 4, 518-534

Abstract: We analyze point-spread changes and betting volume for National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I men's basketball games using survival analysis techniques. Estimates based on point-spread changes from 2,548 games at the Hilton sports book and 1,681 games at the Mirage sports book in the 2007 season indicate that observed changes in point spreads are not related to imbalances in bet volumes. Sports books do not appear to change point spreads to induce equal volumes of bets on either side of propositions; the “balanced book” model of sports book behavior does not describe observed point-spread changes in this market.

Date: 2014
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