Je možné předpovídat repo sazbu ČNB na základě zpět hledícího měnového pravidla?
Is it Possible to Predict the CNB Repo Rate on the Basis of the Backward-Looking Monetary Rule?
Josef Arlt and
Politická ekonomie, 2012, vol. 2012, issue 4, 484-504
The aim of our paper is to formulate and empirically verify the simple backward looking econometric model of the monetary rule, which would be able to describe the development of CNB repo rate, namely only on the basis of statistically measured and in the given time available information. We focus on the period after 1998, when the CNB´s inflation targeting policy is implemented and the repo rate (14 days) plays the role of the monetary policy rate. In the paper we discuss some methodological problems associated with the "ex post" empirical verification of the central bank monetary rule. We construct an empirical model of the monetary rule, justify the choice and the inclusion of explanatory variables, we analyze the statistical properties of time series and verify the alternative forms of econometric models. Our analysis showed that the development of CNB repo rate in the reporting period can be explained by the past and present evolution of three explanatory variables: the yearly inflation rate, the exchange rate and the ECB repo rate. The annualized inflation rate proved to be statistically insignificant in the model. We find interesting that the statistical quality of the estimated model was further increased after a six-month delay of the yearly inflation rate. The obtained results indicate that in determining the CNB repo rate the expected future level of the yearly inflation rate does not play important role and the last yearly inflation rate is more important than its present level.
Keywords: econometric model; repo rate; monetary-policy rules; yearly inflation rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C22 E43 E47 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
free of charge
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2012:y:2012:i:4:id:858:p:484-504
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Redakce Politické ekonomie, Vysoká škola ekonomická, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3
Access Statistics for this article
Politická ekonomie is currently edited by Martin Mandel
More articles in Politická ekonomie from University of Economics, Prague Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Frantisek Sokolovsky ().