Trends of the Contagion Risk in Sovereign Spreads for Emerging European Countries

Vasile Dedu (), Irina Mihai () and Florian Neagu

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2010, issue 2, 265-279

Abstract: We investigate the sovereign spreads behavior of the European emerging countries using the clustering technique. Our main finding is that the distances between spreads during high volatile times is significantly lower than in normal periods, that is, the correlation is much higher. Secondly, the market sentiment explains a much higher percentage of the spreads movements during turbulent times. Thirdly, the link between spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals seems to be blurred compared with the expectations from the economic theory.

Keywords: contagion spreads; emerging markets; clustering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 F37 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_10/rjef2_10_17.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:265-279

Access Statistics for this article

Journal for Economic Forecasting is currently edited by Lucian Liviu Albu and Corina Saman

More articles in Journal for Economic Forecasting from Institute for Economic Forecasting Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Corina Saman ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).