Estimates of Dynamics of the Covid19 Pandemic and of its Impact on the Economy

Lucian Albu (), Ciprian Ion Preda, Radu Lupu (), Carmen Dobrota, George Marian Călin and Claudia M. Boghicevici
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Ciprian Ion Preda: Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy.
George Marian Călin: Doctoral School, Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Claudia M. Boghicevici: Faculty of Economics, "Aurel Vlaicu" University of Arad.

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2020, issue 2, 5-17

Abstract: Economic growth forecasts have been revised downwards in most countries, but the incertitude regarding the duration or the evolution of the crisis persist. Under the pressure of the Covid-19 pandemic expansion, today it is supposed that a huge global crisis will follow in all fields (humanitarian, social, economic). The pandemic impact is difficult to be evaluated until it stops or at least its peak will be reached. As a contribution to such work, we propose an estimation-simulation model, as an alternative to other models coming from probabilistic, genetic algorithms or other approaches. In order to analyse the dynamics of the spread of epidemic among the population, we built a model with differential equations for a special logistic time-function, which resulted in certain key-values and four phases of its evolution. Moreover, by simulating the daily dynamics of pandemic at three levels (world, EU, and Romania) we estimated the impact of pandemic on the economic growth until the end of this year.

Keywords: Covid-19; logistic model; pandemic phases; inflection; concave trajectory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 I10 I18 J10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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