The Probability of Nuclear War

Rudolf Avenhaus, John Fichtner, Steven Brams () and D. Marc Kilgour
Additional contact information
Rudolf Avenhaus: Universität der Bundeswehr, München
John Fichtner: Siemens, München
D. Marc Kilgour: Department of Mathematics, Wilfrid Laurier University

Journal of Peace Research, 1989, vol. 26, issue 1, 91-99

Abstract: A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes to 1 if there is no reduction or if the reduction proportion decreases at a constant rate. Numerical calculations and graphical results illustrate trade-offs between the starting probabilities and the reduction factors, demonstrating especially the significance of the latter. In addition, upper and lower limits for, and approximations of, the eventual probabilities - along with measures of the rate of convergence - are derived. The applicability of the analysis to lowering the probability of nuclear war is discussed, with particular attention paid to real-life factors that seem to affect this probability.

Date: 1989
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Probability of Nuclear War (1986)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joupea:v:26:y:1989:i:1:p:91-99

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