Relative age and incarceration: born on the wrong side of the calendar

Pablo Peña

Education Economics, 2019, vol. 27, issue 6, 588-607

Abstract: Using public information from birth certificates and prison records from Florida, we adopt a reduced-form approach to estimate the effect of relative age on the probability of incarceration in adulthood (until age 30–40). We use a Regression Discontinuity Design around the cutoff date for Kindergarten enrollment (Sept. 1). We find strong evidence of relative-age effects among black males convicted of drug-trafficking offenses. For that group, being born after Sept. 1 decreases the probability of incarceration by roughly 12–20%. We find weak or no relative-age effects for other groups and types of offenses.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/09645292.2019.1653826

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