Identifying macro-determinants of remittance flows to a developing country: The case of Uganda
Andrew Ojede (),
Eddery Lam () and
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2019, vol. 28, issue 4, 429-451
This paper employs minimum Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests for endogenous structural breaks combined with ARCH and GARCH models to investigate how key macrovariables impact diaspora remittances. Since remittances can reverse-cause exchange rate movements and domestic income, we use changes in the world price of oil denominated in U.S. dollars to proxy movements in the Uganda shilling nominal effective exchange rate. To control for endogenous bias between remittances and income, we use rainfall shocks as proxies for income shocks in a non-oil-producing developing economy dominated by agricultural sector and its related activities. In addition, large movements in oil price and rainfall shocks typically cause large supply shocks that can significantly impact size of remittance inflows. We control for interest rate differential, political business cycles and seasonality. Results indicate that accounting for structural change in intercepts (levels) and slopes (trends) of key macroeconomic determinants of remittances around their major structural break points significantly increases their explanatory power. In particular, positive (negative) innovations in income and depreciation (appreciation) in the currency of a recipient developing country are negatively (positively) correlated with remittance inflows. These results are robust across different model specifications.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:28:y:2019:i:4:p:429-451
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development is currently edited by Pasquale Sgro, David E.A. Giles and Charles van Marrewijk
More articles in The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().