Assessing the Relative Progressivity of the Biden Administration's Federal Student Loan Forgiveness Proposal

Jacob Goss (), Daniel Mangrum () and Joelle Scally ()
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Jacob Goss: Department of Economics University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 53706
Daniel Mangrum: Research and Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York New York, NY 10045
Joelle Scally: Research and Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York New York, NY 10045

Education Finance and Policy, 2024, vol. 19, issue 4, 716-733

Abstract: We quantify the total stock of balances eligible for the Biden administration's 2022 student loan forgiveness proposal and examine which groups would have benefited most. Up to $442 billion in loans were eligible. Those who would have benefited most were younger, had lower credit scores, and lived in lower- and middle-income neighborhoods. We also find that Black and Hispanic borrowers would have disproportionately benefited from the proposal. We then compare the distribution of beneficiaries for the proposed policy to several alternative hypothetical forgiveness proposals and three existing tax credits. The additional forgiveness for Pell Grant recipients increased the progressivity of the policy at a cost of $129 billion. Reducing the income eligibility criterion in half from the proposal would have reduced the cost by nearly $100 billion and made the policy more progressive. Compared with existing tax credits, the announced forgiveness policy is less progressive than the Earned Income Tax Credit but more progressive than the 2019 Child Tax Credit and higher education tax credits. We conclude with a discussion of how each policy lever affects the progressivity of loan cancellation to help inform future policy.

Date: 2024
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