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Estimating polling accuracy in multiparty elections using surveybias

Kai Arzheimer () and Jocelyn Evans ()
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Jocelyn Evans: University of Leeds

Stata Journal, 2016, vol. 16, issue 1, 139-158

Abstract: Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opin- ion Quarterly 69: 342–369) propose such a measure A for the two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22: 31–44) demonstrate how mea- sures A′i, B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias, surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population is known (for example, through census data). Copyright 2016 by StataCorp LP.

Keywords: surveybias; surveybiasi; surveybiasseries; multinomial vari- ables; surveys; survey bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Handle: RePEc:tsj:stataj:v:16:y:2016:i:1:p:139-158