The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters

Brigitte Roth Tran and Daniel J. Wilson

Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2025, vol. 12, issue 6, 1667 - 1704

Abstract: We use nearly four decades of US county data to study dynamic local economic impacts of natural disasters that trigger federal aid. We find that these disasters on average raise personal income per capita in the longer run (eight years out). We also find that, in the longer run, wages and home prices are higher, while employment and population are unaffected, suggesting that the income boost may reflect productivity increases and greater demand for housing in supply-constrained areas or compositional shifts. Allowing for heterogeneity across disaster types, we find that the longer-run income boost is driven primarily by hurricanes and tornadoes. We also find that the longer-run boost increases with damages, suggestive of an important role for insurance and government aid—which are highly correlated with damages—in fueling recovery.

Date: 2025
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