Quantifying the Life-Cycle Benefits of an Influential Early-Childhood Program

Jorge Luis Garcia (jlgarcia@tamu.edu), James J. Heckman, Duncan Ermini Leaf and María José Prados

Journal of Political Economy, 2020, vol. 128, issue 7, 2502 - 2541

Abstract: This paper quantifies and aggregates the multiple lifetime benefits of an influential high-quality early-childhood program with outcomes measured through midlife. Guided by economic theory, we supplement experimental data with nonexperimental data to forecast the life-cycle benefits and costs of the program. Our point estimate of the internal rate of return is 13.7%, with an associated benefit/cost ratio of 7.3. We account for model estimation and forecasting error and present estimates from extensive sensitivity analyses. This paper is a template for synthesizing experimental and nonexperimental data using economic theory to estimate the long-run life-cycle benefits of social programs.

Date: 2020
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Related works:
Working Paper: Quantifying the Life-cycle Benefits of an Influential Early Childhood Program (2016)
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