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Estimating the Impact of Welfare Programs on Agricultural Output: Evidence from India

Girish Bahal

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2020, vol. 102, issue 3, 982-998

Abstract: Rural welfare programs are implemented for a variety of reasons. However, of key importance is to understand how government spending under such programs affects local agricultural output which is a key measure of economic activity in developing economies. This article estimates the local multiplicative effects of transfer spending by the government using a novel data‐set of state‐level expenditure under rural welfare programs in India. Using government records as narrative evidence, I use the motivation to implement new programs at the national level to construct changes in transfer spending that are largely exogenous to fluctuations in agricultural output at the state level. I estimate local multipliers using this “narrative shock series” and find government transfers to be quite consequential for local economic activity.

Date: 2020
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https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaz030

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:102:y:2020:i:3:p:982-998

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