Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process
Bharat Trehan ()
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, vol. 47, issue 1, 207-222
The accuracy of inflation forecasts obtained from household and professional surveys has deteriorated noticeably of late, to the extent that a simple autoregressive specification outperforms survey forecasts. The decline in (absolute and relative) accuracy has taken place at about the same time as an apparent change in the inflation process. Projections of household forecasts on realized inflation suggests that households have not recognized this change. For the professionals, projections of expected inflation on headline inflation have changed, but on core inflation have not. By contrast, projections of realized headline inflation on core have changed sharply.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: Survey measures of expected inflation and the inflation process (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:1:p:207-222
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking is currently edited by Robert deYoung, Paul Evans, Pok-Sang Lam and Kenneth D. West
More articles in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking from Blackwell Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().