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ON THE DETERMINANTS OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS

Caroline Freund () and Melise Jaud ()
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Caroline Freund: World Bank, USA

Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), 2013, vol. 05, issue 01, 1-30

Abstract: 90 countries have changed regimes in the last half century. Of these, 46% experienced a successful transition to democracy, 39% failed, and 15% moved gradually to democracy. In this paper, we explore the initial conditions associated with transition and with its success. We find that gender equality, natural resources, conflict, a military government, and urbanization significantly affect the likelihood of regime change and the durability of democracy. Contagion effects from experiences in neighboring countries are also important determinants of success. The results offer insights into what we can expect from the ongoing transitions in the Middle East and North Africa.

Keywords: Democratic transition; democracy consolidation; regime change; growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500053

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