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A Scenario-Based Framework for Assessing the Economic Impacts of Potential Droughts

Jaume Freire-González, Christopher A. Decker and Jim W. Hall
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Jaume Freire-González: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
Christopher A. Decker: #x2020;Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, University of Oxford, Manor Road Building, Oxford OX1 3UQ, UK
Jim W. Hall: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jaume Freire-González

Water Economics and Policy (WEP), 2017, vol. 03, issue 04, 1-27

Abstract: Estimating the potential economic impacts of drought is increasingly prominent in policy discussions on resilience to future population and climate changes. We develop a scenario-based analytical framework for estimating the economic impacts of droughts under a range of assumed climate and policy conditions. The scenarios modeled take account of different assumptions regarding a drought event, including: the source of the drought (green or blue water), temporality, and critically, long-term and short-term policy-making choices. Applying the framework to the UK economy we estimate that, depending on the severity of the drought event and short-term policy choices, the impacts could range from 0.35% to 4.3% of total output in terms of total production. Different long-term policy choices could mitigate the impacts for drought events with similar severity and duration.

Keywords: Droughts; economic impact; input–output analysis; policy; scenario-based; water economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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