Forecast performance in times of terrorism

Jonathan Benchimol and Makram El-Shagi

EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, 2020, vol. 91, 386-402

Abstract: Governments, central banks, and private companies make extensive use of expert and market-based forecasts in their decision-making processes. These forecasts can be affected by terrorism, a factor that should be considered by decision-makers. We focus on terrorism as a mostly endogenously driven form of political uncertainty and assess the forecasting performance of market-based and professional inflation and exchange rate forecasts in Israel. We show that expert forecasts are better than market-based forecasts, particularly during periods of terrorism. However, the performance of both market-based and expert forecasts is significantly worse during such periods. Thus, policymakers should be particularly attentive to terrorism when considering inflation and exchange rate forecasts.

Keywords: Inflation; Exchange rate; Forecast performance; Terrorism; Market forecast; Expert forecast; Political economy; Survey forecast; War (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C83 E37 F37 F51 N45 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/323608/1/f ... terrorism-israel.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecast performance in times of terrorism (2020)
Working Paper: Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism (2020)
Working Paper: Forecast performance in times of terrorism (2020)
Working Paper: Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism (2019)
Working Paper: Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:espost:323608

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