Details about Makram El-Shagi
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Last updated 2023-05-19. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.
Short-id: pel108
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Working Papers
2023
- How the PBoC´s new MLF affects the yield curve
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
- Interest Rate Liberalization, Permanent Technology Shocks, and Macroeconomic Volatility in China
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
2022
- The role of SOEs in the transmission of fiscal policy shocks in China
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
2021
- Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Russia: Money Demand, GDP Nowcasting, and the Price Puzzle
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China 
See also Journal Article in Economic Systems (2022)
- Monetary, financial and fiscal fragility in 2020s
Post-Print, HAL
See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)
- Nine blind men and the PBoC
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (1)
- Political Uncertainty: A High Frequency Approach
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
2020
- Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?
Bank of Israel Working Papers, Bank of Israel 
Also in CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China (2020) 
See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2022)
- Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism
Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (4)
Also in Post-Print, HAL (2020) View citations (4) Bank of Israel Working Papers, Bank of Israel (2019)  CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China (2017) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Economic Modelling (2020)
- Money Demand: A Pseudo-Metastudy
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (2)
- One Country - Two Monetary Policies: Evidence from a new indicator of the PBoC¡äs monetary policy support for poor regions
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
- Shadow of the Colossus: Euro Area Spillovers and Monetary Policy in Central and Eastern Europe
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China 
See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2022)
2019
- Efficient Dynamic Yield Curve Estimation in Emerging Financial Markets
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (1)
- Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Fragility: Evidence from the OECD
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
- Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) 
See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)
- Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China 
See also Journal Article in Economic Modelling (2020)
- Institutional Similarity and Bilateral FDI
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
- The Income Elasticity of Import Demand: A Meta-Survey
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China 
See also Journal Article in Pacific Economic Review (2022)
2018
- IMF Conditionality and Capital Controls: Capital Account Liberalization to Capital Inflow Management?
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China 
See also Journal Article in Review of International Economics (2021)
- State-Level Capital and Investment: Refinements and Update
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Growth and Change (2019)
2017
- China Monetary Policy Transmission in China: Dual Shocks with Dual Bond Markets
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (8)
- Money Demand in China: A Meta-Study
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade (2022)
- Trade Effects of Silver Price Fluctuations in 19th Century China: A Macro Approach
CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China 
See also Journal Article in China Economic Review (2020)
- Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (2)
2016
- Does Inequality Lead to Credit Growth? Testing the Rajan Hypothesis Using State-Level Data
Working Papers, International Network for Economic Research - INFER View citations (10)
See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2016)
- Macroeconomic trade effects of vehicle currencies: Evidence from 19th century China
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
- Much ado about nothing: Sovereign ratings and government bond yields in the OECD
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
- The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields
VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (1)
Also in IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) (2015) View citations (1) Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2016) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Banking & Finance (2018)
- The diffusion of "green'' buildings in the housing market: empirics on the long run effects of energy efficiency regulation
VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association
2015
- Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?
Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (3)
2014
- Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?
Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (9)
- Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (7)
See also Journal Article in Review of International Economics (2016)
- Regulation, Innovation and Technology Diffusion: Evidence from Building Energy Efficiency Standards in Germany
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (7)
2013
- Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?
VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (1)
Also in IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) (2012) View citations (2)
- Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?
Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (4)
Also in Working Papers, International Network for Economic Research - INFER (2012) View citations (4)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2015)
- Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries
VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (2)
See also Journal Article in Economics Bulletin (2014)
2012
- Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (3)
- Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (15)
See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2013)
- Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) 
See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Economics (2016)
2011
- The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (2)
See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2015)
2010
- An Evolutionary Algorithm for the Estimation of Threshold Vector Error Correction Models
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (2)
See also
An evolutionary algorithm for the estimation of threshold vector error correction models, International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer View citations (4)
- Did the Crisis Affect Potential Output?
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
- Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (3)
- Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Computational Economics (2013)
2009
- Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?
IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
- The impact of fixed exchange rates on fiscal discipline
University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics 
See also Journal Article in Scottish Journal of Political Economy (2011)
Journal Articles
2023
- Productivity shocks and capital flows
Economics Letters, 2023, 225, (C)
2022
- Divisia monetary aggregates for Russia: Money demand, GDP nowcasting and the price puzzle
Economic Systems, 2022, 46, (4) 
See also Working Paper (2021)
- Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2022, 201, (C), 205-226 
See also Working Paper (2020)
- Money Demand in China: A Meta Study
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2022, 58, (1), 145-163 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2017)
- Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 120, (C) View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2020)
- The income elasticity of import demand: A meta‐survey
Pacific Economic Review, 2022, 27, (1), 18-41 
See also Working Paper (2019)
- Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of sovereign bond ratings and their timing
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2022, 69, (2), 186-224
2021
- Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021, 115, (C) View citations (2)
See also Working Paper (2019)
- IMF conditionality and capital controls: Capital account liberalization to capital inflow management?
Review of International Economics, 2021, 29, (3), 590-605 
See also Working Paper (2018)
- INTRODUCTION TO CURRENT ISSUES IN APPLIED MACROECONOMICS
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2021, 25, (1), 1-4
- Introduction
Review of International Economics, 2021, 29, (3), 485-486
- Monetary, financial and fiscal fragility in 2020s
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021, 117, (C) 
See also Working Paper (2021)
- WHEN DOES MONETARY MEASUREMENT MATTER (MOST)?
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2021, 25, (1), 240-256 View citations (3)
2020
- Forecast performance in times terrorism
Economic Modelling, 2020, 91, (C), 386-402 View citations (4)
See also Working Paper (2020)
- Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions
Economic Modelling, 2020, 91, (C), 550-558 
See also Working Paper (2019)
- Trade effects of silver price fluctuations in 19th-century China: A macro approach
China Economic Review, 2020, 63, (C) View citations (2)
See also Working Paper (2017)
2019
- A simple estimator for smooth local projections
Applied Economics Letters, 2019, 26, (10), 830-834 View citations (2)
- Rationality tests in the presence of instabilities in finite samples
Economic Modelling, 2019, 79, (C), 242-246 View citations (2)
- State‐level capital and investment: Refinements and update
Growth and Change, 2019, 50, (4), 1411-1422 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper (2018)
- The Impact of Inequality and Redistribution on Growth
Review of Income and Wealth, 2019, 65, (2), 239-263 View citations (6)
- What can we learn from country-level liquidity in the EMU?
Journal of Financial Stability, 2019, 42, (C), 75-83 View citations (5)
2018
- Capital, Interest, and Money: The Economics of Viking Village: Comments on the book by Ulrich van Suntum
ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 2018, 69, (1), 516-517
- The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2018, 97, (C), 198-218 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper (2016)
2017
- Dealing with small sample bias in post-crisis samples
Economic Modelling, 2017, 65, (C), 1-8 View citations (4)
- Empirics on the Long-Run Effects of Building Energy Codes in the Housing Market
Land Economics, 2017, 93, (4), 585-607 View citations (2)
- For they know not what they do: an analysis of monetary policy during the Great Moderation
Applied Economics Letters, 2017, 24, (10), 717-721 View citations (1)
2016
- Does inequality lead to credit growth? Testing the Rajan hypothesis using state-level data
Economics Letters, 2016, 148, (C), 63-67 View citations (14)
See also Working Paper (2016)
- Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story
Journal of Applied Economics, 2016, 19, 293-322 View citations (2)
Also in Journal of Applied Economics, 2016, 19, (2), 293-321 (2016) View citations (2)
See also Working Paper (2012)
- Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis
Review of International Economics, 2016, 24, (1), 37-66 View citations (31)
See also Working Paper (2014)
- Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private forecasters: A dynamic approach
International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 32, (2), 313-323 View citations (19)
- The Diablo 3 Economy: An Agent Based Approach
Computational Economics, 2016, 47, (2), 193-217
2015
- Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, 43, (C), 173-190 View citations (16)
See also Working Paper (2013)
- Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?
European Journal of Political Economy, 2015, 39, (C), 222-234 View citations (15)
- Negative Bonitätsbewertungen und Zinsen auf Staatsanleihen – Gibt es einen Teufelskreis?
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2015, 21, (3), 44-47
- Risk and return—Is there an unholy cycle of ratings and yields?
Economics Letters, 2015, 129, (C), 49-51 View citations (7)
- THE QUANTITY THEORY REVISITED: A NEW STRUCTURAL APPROACH
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015, 19, (1), 58-78 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper (2011)
2014
- A note on the hidden risk of inflation
Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 2014, 17, (1), 91-97
- Geriet die preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Euroraum-Ländern nach Gründung der Währungsunion aus dem Gleichgewicht?
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2014, 20, (3), 46-49
- Liquidity in the liquidity crisis: evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates in Germany and the European crisis countries
Economics Bulletin, 2014, 34, (1), 63-72 View citations (2)
See also Working Paper (2013)
2013
- 3. IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy „State of the Euro – State of the Union“ – ein Konferenzbericht
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2013, 19, (3), 57-58
- Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2013, 35, (4), 520-537 View citations (11)
- Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2013, 35, (C), 76-103 View citations (32)
See also Working Paper (2012)
- Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase
Computational Economics, 2013, 41, (1), 101-123 View citations (7)
See also Working Paper (2010)
2012
- Aktuelle Trends: Der Geldmultiplikator: Eingeschränkte Geldschöpfung im Euroraum und in den USA
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2012, 18, (6), 175-175
- Geldschöpfung in der Krise
Wirtschaftsdienst, 2012, 92, (8), 572-574
- Initial Evidence from a New Database on Capital Market Restrictions
Panoeconomicus, 2012, 59, (3), 283-292 View citations (5)
- Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft überwindet die kurze Schwächephase
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2012, 18, (3), 80-113
- Protect and survive? Did capital controls help shield emerging markets from the crisis?
Economics Bulletin, 2012, 32, (1), 1-6 View citations (1)
- The Distorting Impact of Capital Controls
German Economic Review, 2012, 13, (1), 41-55 View citations (2)
Also in German Economic Review, 2012, 13, (1), 41-55 (2012)
2011
- Bericht über den IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (4), 169-172
- IWH-Indikatoren zur Kapitalmarktregulierung: Hinweise auf eine Renaissance der Kapitalverkehrskontrollen
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (6), 226-232
- Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2011, 22, (3), 298-319 View citations (7)
- Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung in Deutschland geht weiter – Krisenprävention und Krisenmanagement in Europa unter Reformdruck
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (1), 6-32
- The Impact of Fixed Exchange Rates on Fiscal Discipline
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2011, 58, (5), 685-710 View citations (1)
See also Working Paper (2009)
2010
- Capital controls and international interest rate differentials
Applied Economics, 2010, 42, (6), 681-688 View citations (2)
- Die Bedeutung der Besitzverflechtung von Kapitalgesellschaften für die Finanzmarktkrise / The importance of mutual ownership for the genesis of financial crisis
ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 2010, 61, (1), 299-324
- Konjunktur aktuell: Die Erholung legt nur eine kurze Pause ein
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2010, 16, (3), 144-157
- Konjunktur aktuell: Langsame Erholung ermöglicht Einstieg in die Konsolidierung
Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2010, 16, (1), 8-41
- The role of rating agencies in financial crises: event studies from the Asian flu
Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2010, 34, (4), 671-685 View citations (18)
2007
- Korruption, Institutionen und das Einkommensniveau
Review of Economics, 2007, 58, (3), 227-249
Chapters
2007
- Die Einführung von Kapitalverkehrskontrollen mit Korruptionsabsichten
Chapter 16 in List Forum Band 33, 2007, vol. 4, pp 330-356 View citations (1)
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