Details about Makram El-Shagi

Access statistics for papers by Makram El-Shagi.

Last updated 2023-05-19. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pel108

Working Papers

2023

1. How the PBoC´s new MLF affects the yield curve
   CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
2. Interest Rate Liberalization, Permanent Technology Shocks, and Macroeconomic Volatility in China
   CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China

2022

3. The role of SOEs in the transmission of fiscal policy shocks in China
   CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China

2021

4. Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Russia: Money Demand, GDP Nowcasting, and the Price Puzzle
   CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
   See also Journal Article in Economic Systems (2022)
5. Monetary, financial and fiscal fragility in 2020s
   Post-Print, HAL
   See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)
6. Nine blind men and the PBoC
   CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (1)
7. Political Uncertainty: A High Frequency Approach
   CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China

2020

8. Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?
   Bank of Israel Working Papers, Bank of Israel
   Also in CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China (2020)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2022)
9. Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism
   Globalization Institute Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (4)
   Also in Post-Print, HAL (2020) View citations (4)
   Bank of Israel Working Papers, Bank of Israel (2019)
   CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China (2017) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article in Economic Modelling (2020)
10. Money Demand: A Pseudo-Metastudy
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (2)
11. One Country - Two Monetary Policies: Evidence from a new indicator of the PBoC¡äs monetary policy support for poor regions
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
12. Shadow of the Colossus: Euro Area Spillovers and Monetary Policy in Central and Eastern Europe
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2022)

2019

13. Efficient Dynamic Yield Curve Estimation in Emerging Financial Markets
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (1)
14. Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Fragility: Evidence from the OECD
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
15. Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)
16. Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
    See also Journal Article in Economic Modelling (2020)
17. Institutional Similarity and Bilateral FDI
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
18. The Income Elasticity of Import Demand: A Meta-Survey
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
    See also Journal Article in Pacific Economic Review (2022)

2018

19. IMF Conditionality and Capital Controls: Capital Account Liberalization to Capital Inflow Management?
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
    See also Journal Article in Review of International Economics (2021)
20. State-Level Capital and Investment: Refinements and Update
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Growth and Change (2019)

2017

21. China Monetary Policy Transmission in China: Dual Shocks with Dual Bond Markets
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (8)
22. Money Demand in China: A Meta-Study
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade (2022)
23. Trade Effects of Silver Price Fluctuations in 19th Century China: A Macro Approach
    CFDS Discussion Paper Series, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China
    See also Journal Article in China Economic Review (2020)
24. Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (2)

2016

25. Does Inequality Lead to Credit Growth? Testing the Rajan Hypothesis Using State-Level Data
    Working Papers, International Network for Economic Research - INFER View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (2016)
26. Macroeconomic trade effects of vehicle currencies: Evidence from 19th century China
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
27. Much ado about nothing: Sovereign ratings and government bond yields in the OECD
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
28. The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields
    VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (1)
    Also in IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) (2015) View citations (1)
    Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank (2016) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Banking & Finance (2018)
29. The diffusion of "green'' buildings in the housing market: empirics on the long run effects of energy efficiency regulation
    VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

2015

30. Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (3)

2014

31. Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (9)
32. Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Review of International Economics (2016)
33. Regulation, Innovation and Technology Diffusion: Evidence from Building Energy Efficiency Standards in Germany
    Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research View citations (7)

2013

34. Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?
    VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (1)
    Also in IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) (2012) View citations (2)
35. Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (4)
    Also in Working Papers, International Network for Economic Research - INFER (2012) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2015)
36. Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries
    VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Bulletin (2014)

2012

37. Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (3)
38. Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2013)
39. Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Economics (2016)

2011

40. The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2015)

2010

41. An Evolutionary Algorithm for the Estimation of Threshold Vector Error Correction Models
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (2)
    See also An evolutionary algorithm for the estimation of threshold vector error correction models, International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer View citations (4)
42. Did the Crisis Affect Potential Output?
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
43. Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (3)
44. Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Computational Economics (2013)

2009

45. Inflation Expectations: Does the Market Beat Professional Forecasts?
    IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
46. The impact of fixed exchange rates on fiscal discipline
    University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Scottish Journal of Political Economy (2011)

Journal Articles

2023

1. Productivity shocks and capital flows
   Economics Letters, 2023, 225, (C)

2022

2. Divisia monetary aggregates for Russia: Money demand, GDP nowcasting and the price puzzle
   Economic Systems, 2022, 46, (4)
   See also Working Paper (2021)
3. Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?
   Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2022, 201, (C), 205-226
   See also Working Paper (2020)
4. Money Demand in China: A Meta Study
   Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2022, 58, (1), 145-163 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2017)
5. Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 120, (C) View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2020)
6. The income elasticity of import demand: A meta‐survey
   Pacific Economic Review, 2022, 27, (1), 18-41
   See also Working Paper (2019)
7. Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of sovereign bond ratings and their timing
   Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2022, 69, (2), 186-224

2021

8. Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021, 115, (C) View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper (2019)
9. IMF conditionality and capital controls: Capital account liberalization to capital inflow management?
   Review of International Economics, 2021, 29, (3), 590-605
   See also Working Paper (2018)
10. INTRODUCTION TO CURRENT ISSUES IN APPLIED MACROECONOMICS
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2021, 25, (1), 1-4
11. Introduction
    Review of International Economics, 2021, 29, (3), 485-486
12. Monetary, financial and fiscal fragility in 2020s
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021, 117, (C)
    See also Working Paper (2021)
13. WHEN DOES MONETARY MEASUREMENT MATTER (MOST)?
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2021, 25, (1), 240-256 View citations (3)

2020

14. Forecast performance in times terrorism
    Economic Modelling, 2020, 91, (C), 386-402 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2020)
15. Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions
    Economic Modelling, 2020, 91, (C), 550-558
    See also Working Paper (2019)
16. Trade effects of silver price fluctuations in 19th-century China: A macro approach
    China Economic Review, 2020, 63, (C) View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2017)

2019

17. A simple estimator for smooth local projections
    Applied Economics Letters, 2019, 26, (10), 830-834 View citations (2)
18. Rationality tests in the presence of instabilities in finite samples
    Economic Modelling, 2019, 79, (C), 242-246 View citations (2)
19. State‐level capital and investment: Refinements and update
    Growth and Change, 2019, 50, (4), 1411-1422 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2018)
20. The Impact of Inequality and Redistribution on Growth
    Review of Income and Wealth, 2019, 65, (2), 239-263 View citations (6)
21. What can we learn from country-level liquidity in the EMU?
    Journal of Financial Stability, 2019, 42, (C), 75-83 View citations (5)

2018

22. Capital, Interest, and Money: The Economics of Viking Village: Comments on the book by Ulrich van Suntum
    ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 2018, 69, (1), 516-517
23. The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields
    Journal of Banking & Finance, 2018, 97, (C), 198-218 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2016)

2017

24. Dealing with small sample bias in post-crisis samples
    Economic Modelling, 2017, 65, (C), 1-8 View citations (4)
25. Empirics on the Long-Run Effects of Building Energy Codes in the Housing Market
    Land Economics, 2017, 93, (4), 585-607 View citations (2)
26. For they know not what they do: an analysis of monetary policy during the Great Moderation
    Applied Economics Letters, 2017, 24, (10), 717-721 View citations (1)

2016

27. Does inequality lead to credit growth? Testing the Rajan hypothesis using state-level data
    Economics Letters, 2016, 148, (C), 63-67 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
28. Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story
    Journal of Applied Economics, 2016, 19, 293-322 View citations (2)
    Also in Journal of Applied Economics, 2016, 19, (2), 293-321 (2016) View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
29. Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis
    Review of International Economics, 2016, 24, (1), 37-66 View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
30. Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private forecasters: A dynamic approach
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 32, (2), 313-323 View citations (19)
31. The Diablo 3 Economy: An Agent Based Approach
    Computational Economics, 2016, 47, (2), 193-217

2015

32. Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, 43, (C), 173-190 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
33. Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?
    European Journal of Political Economy, 2015, 39, (C), 222-234 View citations (15)
34. Negative Bonitätsbewertungen und Zinsen auf Staatsanleihen – Gibt es einen Teufelskreis?
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2015, 21, (3), 44-47
35. Risk and return—Is there an unholy cycle of ratings and yields?
    Economics Letters, 2015, 129, (C), 49-51 View citations (7)
36. THE QUANTITY THEORY REVISITED: A NEW STRUCTURAL APPROACH
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015, 19, (1), 58-78 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2011)

2014

37. A note on the hidden risk of inflation
    Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 2014, 17, (1), 91-97
38. Geriet die preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Euroraum-Ländern nach Gründung der Währungsunion aus dem Gleichgewicht?
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2014, 20, (3), 46-49
39. Liquidity in the liquidity crisis: evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates in Germany and the European crisis countries
    Economics Bulletin, 2014, 34, (1), 63-72 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2013

40. 3. IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy „State of the Euro – State of the Union“ – ein Konferenzbericht
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2013, 19, (3), 57-58
41. Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 2013, 35, (4), 520-537 View citations (11)
42. Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2013, 35, (C), 76-103 View citations (32)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
43. Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase
    Computational Economics, 2013, 41, (1), 101-123 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2010)

2012

44. Aktuelle Trends: Der Geldmultiplikator: Eingeschränkte Geldschöpfung im Euroraum und in den USA
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2012, 18, (6), 175-175
45. Geldschöpfung in der Krise
    Wirtschaftsdienst, 2012, 92, (8), 572-574
46. Initial Evidence from a New Database on Capital Market Restrictions
    Panoeconomicus, 2012, 59, (3), 283-292 View citations (5)
47. Konjunktur aktuell: Deutsche Wirtschaft überwindet die kurze Schwächephase
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2012, 18, (3), 80-113
48. Protect and survive? Did capital controls help shield emerging markets from the crisis?
    Economics Bulletin, 2012, 32, (1), 1-6 View citations (1)
49. The Distorting Impact of Capital Controls
    German Economic Review, 2012, 13, (1), 41-55 View citations (2)
    Also in German Economic Review, 2012, 13, (1), 41-55 (2012)

2011

50. Bericht über den IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (4), 169-172
51. IWH-Indikatoren zur Kapitalmarktregulierung: Hinweise auf eine Renaissance der Kapitalverkehrskontrollen
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (6), 226-232
52. Inflation expectations: Does the market beat econometric forecasts?
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2011, 22, (3), 298-319 View citations (7)
53. Konjunktur aktuell: Aufschwung in Deutschland geht weiter – Krisenprävention und Krisenmanagement in Europa unter Reformdruck
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2011, 17, (1), 6-32
54. The Impact of Fixed Exchange Rates on Fiscal Discipline
    Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2011, 58, (5), 685-710 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2009)

2010

55. Capital controls and international interest rate differentials
    Applied Economics, 2010, 42, (6), 681-688 View citations (2)
56. Die Bedeutung der Besitzverflechtung von Kapitalgesellschaften für die Finanzmarktkrise / The importance of mutual ownership for the genesis of financial crisis
    ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 2010, 61, (1), 299-324
57. Konjunktur aktuell: Die Erholung legt nur eine kurze Pause ein
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2010, 16, (3), 144-157
58. Konjunktur aktuell: Langsame Erholung ermöglicht Einstieg in die Konsolidierung
    Wirtschaft im Wandel, 2010, 16, (1), 8-41
59. The role of rating agencies in financial crises: event studies from the Asian flu
    Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2010, 34, (4), 671-685 View citations (18)

2007

60. Korruption, Institutionen und das Einkommensniveau
    Review of Economics, 2007, 58, (3), 227-249

Chapters

2007

1. Die Einführung von Kapitalverkehrskontrollen mit Korruptionsabsichten
   Chapter 16 in List Forum Band 33, 2007, vol. 4, pp 330-356 View citations (1)