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Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?

Jonathan Benchimol (), Makram El-Shagi and Yossi Saadon ()
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Yossi Saadon: Bank of Israel

No 2020.11, Bank of Israel Working Papers from Bank of Israel

Abstract: Each person's characteristics may influence that person's behaviors and their outcomes. We build and use a new database to estimate experts' performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. We classify experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts' inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. An expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.

Keywords: expert forecast; behavioral economics; survival analysis; panel estimation; global financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 E70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2020-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
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