Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?

Jonathan Benchimol, Makram El-Shagi and Yossi Saadon

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: Each person's characteristics may influence that person's behaviors and outcomes. This study builds and uses a new database to estimate experts' performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. Our study classifies experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts' inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. The study finds that an expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.

Keywords: Expert forecast; Behavioral economics; Survival analysis; Panel estimation; Global financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-09
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-emse.ccsd.cnrs.fr/emse-04624966v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2022, 201, pp.205-226. ⟨10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.025⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal-emse.ccsd.cnrs.fr/emse-04624966v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts? (2022)
Working Paper: Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts? (2020)
Working Paper: Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts? (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:emse-04624966

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.025

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().