Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?

Jonathan Benchimol, Makram El-Shagi and Yossi Saadon

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2022, vol. 201, issue C, 205-226

Abstract: Each person’s characteristics may influence that person’s behaviors and outcomes. This study builds and uses a new database to estimate experts’ performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. Our study classifies experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts’ inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. The study finds that an expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.

Keywords: Expert forecast; Behavioral economics; Survival analysis; Panel estimation; Global financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 E70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts? (2022)
Working Paper: Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts? (2020)
Working Paper: Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts? (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:201:y:2022:i:c:p:205-226

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.025

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