Working Paper Series

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2069: Working Paper 54 - Economic Analysis and Prioritization of Feeder Road Rehabilitation: Incorporating Vehicle Operating Costs, Passenger Time and Producer Surplus Transport Costs Savings - The Case of Southwestern Uganda

AfDB AfDB

2068: Working Paper 50 - Infrastructure and Economic Development

AfDB AfDB

2066: Working Paper 194 - The Impact of Community Development Works Programs (CWP) on Households’ Wellbeing in Albania

Amadou Diallo

999: Working Paper 195 - Inequality, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Mthuli Ncube, John Anyanwu and Kjell Hausken

997: Working Paper 193 - Large Scale Agribusiness Investments and Implications in Africa- Development Finance Institutions' Perspectives

Issa Faye, Ousman Gajigo and Emelly Mutambatsere

996: Working Paper 188 - Remittances and their Macroeconomic Impact: Evidence from Africa

Mthuli Ncube and Zuzana Brixiová Schwidrowski

995: Working Paper 192 - Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Credit in Africa: Any Role for Institutional Factors

Adeleke Oluwole Salami and Damilola Arawomo

994: Working Paper 191 - Do Firms Learn by Exporting or Learn to Export: Evidence from Senegalese Manufacturers’ Plants

Cisse Fatou and Jieun Choi

993: Working Paper 190 - Early Warning Systems and Systemic Banking Crises in Low Income Countries: A Multinomial Logit Approach

Giovanni Caggiano, Pietro Calice and Leone Leonida

992: Working Paper 189 - An Empirical Investigation of the Taylor Curve in South Africa

Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube and Eric Olson

991: Working Paper 187 - The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia

Zuzana Brixiová Schwidrowski, Balázs Égert and Thouraya Hadj Amor Essid

990: Working Paper 186 - Balancing Development Returns and Credit Risks: Evidence from the AfDB’s Experience

Yannis Arvanitis, Marco Stampini and Désiré Vencatachellum

989: Working Paper 185 - Remittances and the Voter Turnout in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Macro and Micro Level Data

Christian Hubert Ebeke and Thierry Yogo

988: Working Paper 184 - Does Oil Wealth Affect Democracy in Africa?

John Anyanwu and Andrew E. O. Erhijakpor

987: Working Paper 112 - Analysis of Poverty in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Ahmed Moummi

982: Working Paper 179 - Heterogeneity of the Effects of Aid on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan: Comparative Evidence from Stable and Post-Conflict Countries

Douzounet Mallaye and Thierry Yogo

981: We develop a global vector autoregressive model (GVAR) to analyze the global growth spillover effects on Africa. The model contains 46 African countries and 30 developed and emerging market countries, covering 90 percent of the world economy. The results suggest that there is a significant growth spillover effect to African economies from both the Euro zone economies and BRICs. In terms of the magnitudes, a percentage decline in Euro zone growth rate could lead to 0.34 to 0.6 percentage point drop in African countries growth rates while an equivalent shock in BRICs growth could dent African growth rate to the tune of 0.09 to 0.23 percentage points. In both cases, the adverse effects on fragile and resource dependent economies are closer to the upper bound while the lower bounds apply for the more diversified African countries. The paper also looks at the spillover effects of the US, Euro, UK, and Japan (G4) quantitative easing (QE). The results indicate that the QE could have a mild inflationary effect in addition to putting pressure on exchange rates to appreciate

Daniel Zerfu Gurara and Mthuli Ncube

980: Working Paper 182 - Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare in Ethiopia: Evidence from Micro Data

Abebe Abebe and Andinet Delelegn

979: Working Paper 181 - Determining the Correlates of Poverty for Inclusive Growth in Africa

John Anyanwu

978: Working Paper 180 - Marital Status, Household Size and Poverty in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2009-2010 Survey Data

John Anyanwu

478: Working Paper 178 - Holding Excess Foreign Reserves Versus Infrastructure Finance: What should Africa do?

Cédric Achille Mbeng Mezui and Uche Duru

476: This paper presents a macroeconometric model of Rwanda. The model is constructed to analyze the macroeconomic effects of various policy interventions. It captures the supply constrained nature of the economy as well as its dependence on the external sector. The individual equations of the model are estimated in ARDL framework and a battery of tests are used to test the forecasting ability of the model. The model tracks the historical data very well with the desirable properties of low bias and variance proportions of the Theil’s Inequality coefficient. Two sets of simulation results are presented to show the model’s use for policy analysis. The results of the simulations are consistent with a priori theoretical expectations

Daniel Zerfu Gurara

473: Working Paper 176 - Medium-Term Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Lesotho

Edirisa Nseera

472: Working Paper 175 - Youth Employment in Africa: New Evidence and Policies from Swaziland

Zuzana Brixiová Schwidrowski and Thierry Kangoye

470: Working Paper 174 - African Development Finance Institutions: Unlocking the Potential

Pietro Calice

469: Working Paper 173 - Production and Conflict in Risky Elections

Kjell Hausken and Mthuli Ncube

468: Working Paper 172 - Political Economy of Service Delivery: Monitoring versus Contestation

Kjell Hausken and Mthuli Ncube

467: Working Paper 171 - Youth Unemployment and Political Instability in Selected Developing Countries

Therese F. Azeng and Thierry Yogo

449: Working Paper 170 - Development of Wind Energy in Africa

Alli D. Mukasa, Emelly Mutambatsere, Yannis Arvanitis and Thouraya Triki

448: Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance

Mthuli Ncube and Eliphas Ndou

447: Working Paper 168 - Competition and Market Structure in the Zambian Banking Sector

Anthony M. Simpasa

446: Working Paper 167 - Promoting Economic Reforms in Developing Countries Rethinking Budgetary Aid?

Ferdinand Bakoup

445: Working Paper 166 - Misalignment of Real Effective Exchange Rates: When Should the Franc CFA be Devalued Again?

Sosthène Ulrich Gnansounou and Audrey Chouchane

444: Working Paper 165 - Tax resource mobilization and its impact on household living standards evidence from Niger

Ahmed Moummi

442: Working Paper 164 - Closing the Education Gender Gap: Estimating the Impact of Girls’ Scholarship Program in The Gambia

Ousman Gajigo

441: Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania

Christopher Adam, David Kwimbere, Wilfred Mbowe and Stephen O’Connell

440: Working Paper 162 - Planning to Fail or Failing to Plan: Institutional Response to Nigeria’s Development Question

Evans Osabuohien, Uchenna Efobi and Adeleke Oluwole Salami

439: Working Paper 161 - The Impact of Euro Area Monetary and Bond Yield Shocks on the South African Economy: Structural Vector Autoregression Model Evidence

Mthuli Ncube, Eliphas Ndou and Nombulelo Gumata

438: Working Paper 160 - Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Granger Causality Analysis

Wolassa Lawisso Kumo

437: Working Paper 159 - Why do some Firms abandon Formality for Informality? Evidence from African Countries?

Ousman Gajigo and Mary Hallward-Driemeier

433: Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR evidence

Mthuli Ncube, Eliphas Ndou and Nombulelo Gumata

432: Working Paper 156 - Macroeconomic Shock Synchronization in the East African Community

Albert Mafusire and Zuzana Brixiová Schwidrowski

431: Working Paper 155 - Youth, Jobs, and Structural Change: Confronting Africa’s “Employment Problem”

John Page

430: Working Paper 158 - Tackling Graduate Unemployment through Employment Subsidies an Assessment of the SIVP Programme in Tunisia

Stijn Broecke

410: Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR Evidence

Mthuli Ncube, Eliphas Ndou and Nombulelo Gumata

409: Working Paper 156 - Macroeconomic Shock Synchronization in the East African Community

Albert Mafusire and Zuzana Brixiová Schwidrowski

408: Working Paper 155 - Youth Jobs and Structural Change: Confronting Africa’s “Employment Problem”

John Page

407: Working Paper 154 - Credit Bureaus and Registries and Access to Finance: New Evidence from 42 African Countries

Thouraya Triki and Ousman Gajigo

406: Working Paper 153 - Accessing Local Markets for Infrastructure: Lessons for Africa

Cédric Achille Mbeng Mezui

401: Working Paper 152 - Dynamics of Inflation in Uganda

Alain Kabundi