Working Papers

From Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales
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1203: Export Survival in Global Value Chains

David Córcoles, Carmen Diaz-Mora and Rosario Gandoy

1202: On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and Maria del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

1201: Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe with a view to adopting the euro

Juan Cuestas, Luis Gil-Alana and Karl Taylor

1109: Hysteresis and Import Penetration with Decreasing Sunk Costs

Henry Aray

1108: Historical financial analogies of the current crisis

Julian Andrada-Felix, Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

1107: Sustainability of external imbalances in the OECD countries

Oscar Bajo-Rubio, Carmen Diaz-Roldan and Vicente Esteve

1106: Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach

Marta Gómez-Puig and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

1105: Do exports cause growth? Some evidence for the new EU members

Oscar Bajo-Rubio and Carmen Diaz-Roldan

1104: Economic growth and the balance-ofpayments constraint: The case of the Spanish regions, 1988-2008

Oscar Bajo-Rubio and Carmen Diaz-Roldan

1103: Volatility in EMU sovereign bond yields: Permanent and transitory components

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and Amalia Morales-Zumaquero

1102: Wage Assimilation of Immigrants in Spain

Zenón Jiménez-Ridruejo and Carlos Borondo Arribas

1101: The US Dollar-Euro exchange rate and US-EMU bond yield differentials: A Causality Analysis

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

1010: The balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in a long-term perspective: Spain, 1850-2000

Oscar Bajo-Rubio

1009: External imbalances in a monetary union. Does the Lawson doctrine apply to Europe?

Mariam Camarero, Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre and Cecilio Tamarit

1008: The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974-2010

Vicente Esteve, Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez and Maria Prats

1007: The link between immigration and trade in developing countries

Jose Blanes

1006: Bilateral trade flows and income-distribution similarity

Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Sebastian Vollmer

1005: Markups, bargaining power and offshoring: An empirical assessment

Lourdes Moreno and Diego Rodriguez

1004: Government deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850-2000

Oscar Bajo-Rubio, Carmen Diaz-Roldan and Vicente Esteve

1003: On the sustainability of government deficits: some long-term evidence for Spain, 1850-2000

Oscar Bajo-Rubio, Carmen Diaz-Roldan and Vicente Esteve

1002: Revisiting Rose’s common currency debate

Maria Santana-Gallego, Francisco Ledesma and Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez

1001: The euro and the volatility of exchange rates

Amalia Morales-Zumaquero and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

0709: Trade growth in a heterogeneous firm model: Evidence from South Eastern Europe

d'Artis Kancs

0708: Foreign direct investment and regional growth: An analysis of the Spanish case

Oscar Bajo-Rubio, Carmen Diaz-Mora and Carmen Diaz-Roldan

0707: On the impact of exchange rate regimes on tourism

María Santana-Gallego, Francisco Ledesma and Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez

0706: Post-EMS exchange risk trends: A comparative perspective between Euro, British Pound and Japanese Yen excess returns against US Dollar

Yolanda Santana-Jiménez and Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez

0705: Political and institutional factors in regime change in the ERM: An application of duration analysis

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and Francisco Pérez-Bermejo

0704: Demand shocks and trade balance dynamics

José García-Solanes, Jesús Rodríguez-López and Jose Torres

0703: EU-15 sovereign governments' cost of borrowing after seven years of Monetary Union

Marta Gómez-Puig

0702: Fiscal harmonization in the presence of public inputs

Gonzalo Fernandez-de-Cordoba and Jose Torres

0701: Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the fiscal theory of the price level

Oscar Bajo-Rubio, Carmen Diaz-Roldan and Vicente Esteve

0605: On Distributed Lags in Dynamic Panel Data Models: Evidence from Market Shares

Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, Dierk Herzer, Sebastian Vollmer and Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso

0603: Following the yellow brick road? The Euro, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

Jesús Rodríguez López and Jose Torres

0602: Coagglomeration and Spillovers

Salvador Barrios, Luisito Bertinelli and Eric Strobl

0601: Climatic Change and Rural-Urban Migration: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa

Salvador Barrios, Luisito Bertinelli and Eric Strobl

0513: The Balassa-Samuelson effect and the wage, price and unemployment dynamics in Spain

Katarina Juselius and Javier Ordóñez

0512: CHARACTERIZING MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS IN THE CEECs

Oscar Bajo-Rubio and Carmen Diaz-Roldan

0511: THE IMPACT OF MONETARY UNION ON EU-15 SOVEREIGN DEBT YIELD SPREADS

Marta Gómez-Puig

0510: Determinants of regional integration agreements in a discrete choice framework: re-examining the evidence

Laura Márquez-Ramos, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso and Celestino Suárez-Burguet

0509: Immigrant’s Characteristics and its different effects on bilateral trade

Jose Blanes

0508: VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS IN EMU: 1991-2004

Oscar Bajo-Rubio and Carmen Diaz-Roldan

0507: DETERMINANTS OF OUTSOURCING PRODUCTION: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach for Manufacturing Industries

Carmen Diaz-Mora

0506: Trade types with developed and developing countries what can we learn from Spanish data? Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the nature of Spanish intra-industry trade and find that intraindustry trade with CEEC, Asian and Mediterranean countries has increased considerably since the middle of the Nineties. The second aim of the paper is to study if the comparative advantage argument also explains vertical intra-.industry trade between different income countries. According to OLS estimations, technological differences do increase DVIIT while physical capital differences decreases it. Results obtained applying Heckman method support the idea that differences in physical capital reduce the probability of IIT to occur but the level of vertical and horizontal IIT is better explained by the proximity of partners, the similarity in development level and size of market than by differences in physical capital endowments. The variables considered, mostly country-specific do have the same impact on vertical and horizontal IIT with emergent countries

Juliette Milgram Baleix and Ana Moro-Egido

0505: MONETARY INTEGRATION AND THE COST OF BORROWING

Marta Gómez-Puig

0504: Paths of Development in Open Economies: The Role of Land

María Guilló and Fidel Perez-Sebastian

0503: Regímenes cambiarios de iure y de facto. El caso de la Peseta/Dólar, 1965-1998

Francisco Ledesma, Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez, Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

0502: Testing the BalassA-Samuelson hypothesis in two different groups of countries: OECD and Latin America

José García Solanes and Fernando Torrejón Flores

0501: Some critics to the contagion correlation test

Sarai Criado

0403: Is the foreign capital leaving industrialized countries? The case of Spain

Carlos M. Fernández-Otheo and Rafael Myro

0402: Price-Cost Margins and Economic Integration: How Important is the Pro-Competitive Effect?

Oscar Bajo-Rubio, Carmen Diaz-Roldan and Antonio Gómez-Plana

0401: An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS

Francisco Ledesma, Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

0304: Monetary Union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries

Mariam Camarero, Renato G. Jr. Flôres and Cecilio Tamarit

0301: Return to Tourist Destination. Is it Reputation, After All?

Francisco Ledesma, Manuel Navarro and Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez

0205: Regimen changes and duration in the European Monetary System

Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and Reyes Maroto Illera

0204: Asymmetries in the Cyclical Effects of Monetary Policy on Output: Some European Evidence

Ramón Maria-Dolores

0203: Optimal Oil Taxation in a Small Open Economy

Carlos de Miguel and Baltasar Manzano

0202: Foreign Direct Investment in a Process of Economic Integration: The Case of Spanish Manufacturing, 1986-1992

Oscar Bajo-Rubio and Carmen López-Pueyo

0201: INWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND IMPORTS IN SPAIN

Maite Alguacil and Vicente Orts

0108: A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate

Mariam Camarero and Cecilio Tamarit

0107: Economic Integration and Banking Mergers Strategies

José García Solanes and Diego Peñarrubia

0106: A GENERAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF MONETARY UNIONS

Oscar Bajo-Rubio and Carmen Diaz-Roldan

0105: INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT AND PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS: EVIDENCE FOR SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Fernando Pérez de Gracia and Juncal Cuñado

0104: Business Cycle and Speculative Pressures in a Target Zone

M. Isabel Campos López and M. Araceli Rodríguez López

0103: THE CHANGING BEHAVIOR OF THE TERM STRUCTURE OF POST-WAR U.S. INTEREST RATES AND CHANGES IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN: IS THERE A LINK?

María-José Gutiérrez and Jesús Vázquez

0102: Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries

Juncal Cuñado and Fernando Pérez de Gracia

0101: Has 1997 Asian Crisis increased Information Flows between International Markets?

Francisco Climent and Vicente Meneu

0009: COORDINATION OF FISCAL POLICIES IN A MONETARY UNION

Carmen Diaz-Roldan

0008: INSURANCE MECHANISMS AGAINST ASYMMETRIC SHOCKS IN A MONETARY UNION: A PROPOSAL WITH AN APPLICATION TO EMU

Oscar Bajo-Rubio and Carmen Diaz-Roldan

0007: Were The Peseta Exchange Rate Crises Forecastable During Target Zone Period?

M. Isabel Campos and Zenón Jiménez-Ridruejo

0006: UNIFORM OUTPUT SUBSIDIES IN AN ECONOMIC UNION WITH FIRMS HETEROGENEITY

Bernardo Moreno and Jose Torres

0005: Crises and Credibility in a Target Zone: A Logit from a Markov-Switching Model

M. Isabel Campos and María Araceli Rodríguez

0004: INTERNATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY SHOCKS WITH INTEREST RATE RULE Abstract: This paper explores the implications of monetary policy rules in the general equilibrium two-country framework of Obstfeld and Rogo (1995). It is argued that the sign of the correlation of domestic and foreign outputs can be positive after a monetary shock, contrary to the standard result. The reason is that an interest rate rule targeting the consumer price index implies less volatile terms of trade and this reduces the expenditure switching e¤ect, and thus the demand e¤ect through the fall of the real interest rate prevails. It is also shown that inertia in the interest rate rule is a necessary condition for the model to display persistence of the real variables after a shock to the interest rate rule

Carlos Borondo

0003: Domestic and foreign price-marginal cost margins: An application to Spanish manufacturing firms

Lourdes Moreno and Diego Rodriguez

0002: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS: LINEAR VERSUS NONLINEAR TRADING RULES

Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, Simon Sosvilla-Rivero and Julian Andrada-Felix

0001: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF CAPITAL CONTROLS: SPAIN, 1986-1990

Oscar Bajo-Rubio and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero