Mega Deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?

Houssein Guimbard and Maëlan Le Goff

No 332514, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: The sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are excluded from the mega-deals, free trade agreements (FTA) currently under negotiations between several developed economies (EUUSA, EU-Japan, China-Japan-Korea…). As Sub-Saharan African exports remain dependent on these large markets, Sub-Saharan African countries could undergo important economic impacts,. Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM), we find that mega-deals would have a negative impact on the welfare of SSA countries. Regional integration (through the negotiation of the “Tripartite” FTA, which gathers, 26 African countries) might limit these losses, but could not overcome them. A continental regional trade agreement (RTA) involving all SSA countries would slightly counterbalance the negative impacts of the mega-deals. We also show that openness of SSA countries towards Asia could be a potential solution to avoid trade diversion.

Keywords: International Relations/Trade; International Development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2014
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Related works:
Working Paper: Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa? (2015)
Working Paper: Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa? (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332514

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