Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?

Houssein Guimbard and Maëlan Le Goff ()

Working Papers from CEPII research center

Abstract: The sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are excluded from the mega-deals (EU-USA, EU-Japan, China-Japan-Korea…) under negotiations: they might however undergo important economic impacts, as their exports remain dependant from those large markets. Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM), this paper find that mega-deals would have a negative impact on the welfare of SSA countries. Regional integration (the “Tripartite” FTA, a potential trade agreement gathering 26 African countries) in Africa might limit these losses but cannot overcome them. A continental RTA involving all SSA countries would slightly counterbalance the negative impact of the Mega deals. We also show that openness of African countries towards Asia could be a potential solution to avoid trade diversion.

Keywords: International Trade; Mega Deals; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 O55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa? (2015)
Working Paper: Mega Deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa? (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-28

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