Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa?

Houssein Guimbard and Maëlan Le Goff ()

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: The sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are excluded from the mega-deals, free trade agreements (FTA) currently under negotiations between several large economies (European Union United States, European Union - Japan, China-Japan-South Korea ). As Sub-Saharan African exports remain dependent on these large markets, sub-Saharan African countries could undergo important economic impacts. Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM), we find that mega-deals would have a negative impact on the welfare of SSA countries. Regional integration strengthening limited only to the implementation of a Tripartite FTA gathering 26 African countries, might limit these losses but could not overcome them. A continental regional trade agreement (RTA) involving all SSA countries would slightly counterbalance the negative impacts of the mega-deals. We also show that openness of SSA countries towards Asia could be a potential solution to avoid trade diversion.

Keywords: International trade; Mega-deals; Africa. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 O55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Mega Deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa? (2014)
Working Paper: Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa? (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:569

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