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Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts

Michael Clements

No 269881, Economic Research Papers from University of Warwick - Department of Economics

Abstract: A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of ináation and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this Önding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delayed updating, and asymmetric loss. We also consider the relative accuracy of the two sets of forecasts.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-07-14
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Related works:
Journal Article: Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts (2008) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uwarer:269881

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269881

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