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Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts

Michael Clements

European Economic Review, 2010, vol. 54, issue 4, 536-549

Abstract: A comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent. We evaluate a number of possible explanations, and find that not all forecasters update their histogram forecasts as new information arrives. This is supported by the finding that the point forecasts are more accurate than the histograms in terms of first-moment prediction.

Keywords: Rationality; Point; forecasts; Probability; distributions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Working Paper: Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts (2008) Downloads
Working Paper: Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts (2008) Downloads
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