Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics
A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of inflation and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this finding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delayed updating, and asymmetric loss. We also consider the relative accuracy of the two sets of forecasts.
Keywords: Rationality; point forecasts; probability distributions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ecm, nep-for and nep-mac
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https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w ... s/2008/twerp_870.pdf
Journal Article: Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts (2010)
Working Paper: Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:870
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