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Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts

Michael Clements

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of inflation and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this finding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delayed updating, and asymmetric loss. We also consider the relative accuracy of the two sets of forecasts.

Keywords: Rationality; point forecasts; probability distributions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ecm, nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2008
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https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w ... s/2008/twerp_870.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts (2008) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:870

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