EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Reference Class Forecasting for Hong Kong's Major Roadworks Projects

Bent Flyvbjerg, Chi-keung Hon and Wing Huen Fok

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Reference class forecasting is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in infrastructure projects and programmes. In 2012 the Hong Kong government's Development Bureau commissioned a feasibility study on reference class forecasting in Hong Kong - a first for the Asia-Pacific region. This study involved 25 roadwork projects, for which forecast costs and durations were compared with actual outcomes. The analysis established and verified the statistical distribution of the forecast accuracy at various stages of project development, and benchmarked the projects against a sample of 863 similar projects. The study contributed to the understanding of how to improve forecasts by de-biasing early estimates, explicitly considering the risk appetite of decision makers, and safeguarding public funding allocation by balancing exceedance and under-use of project budgets.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-ppm and nep-sea
Date: 2017-10
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Published in Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers 169, November 2016, Issue CE6, pp. 17-24

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.09419 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1710.09419

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().

 
Page updated 2019-05-11
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1710.09419