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Details about Bent Flyvbjerg

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Homepage:http://www.linkedin.com/in/flyvbjerg
Workplace:Saïd Business School, Oxford University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Bent Flyvbjerg.

Last updated 2018-07-22. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pfl122


Jump to Journal Articles Edited books Chapters

Working Papers

2018

  1. Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which Is the Better Explanation?
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
    See also Journal Article in World Development (2018)
  2. Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (2)

2017

  1. Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  2. Do Classics Exist in Megaproject Management?
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  3. Reference Class Forecasting for Hong Kong's Major Roadworks Projects
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads

2016

  1. Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2016)
  2. The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (6)

2015

  1. Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Transport Policy (2012)
  2. Different Cost Performance: Different Determinants? The Case of Cost Overruns in Dutch Transportation Infrastructure Projects
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  3. The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (3)

2014

  1. Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (62)
    See also Journal Article in Energy Policy (2014)
  2. What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and Why: An Overview
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (46)

2013

  1. Comparison of Capital Costs per Route-Kilometre in Urban Rail
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  2. Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Transportation Planning and Technology (2006)
  3. Cost overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (2)
  4. Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  5. Delusions of Success: Comment on Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  6. Double Whammy - How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  7. Five Misunderstandings About Case-Study Research
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (2)
  8. From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (1)
  9. Geographical Variation in Project Cost Performance: The Netherlands versus Worldwide
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  10. How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  11. How Planners Deal with Uncomfortable Knowledge: The Dubious Ethics of the American Planning Association
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (1)
  12. Lock-in and Its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects. Investigating the Way in Which Lock-in Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Environment and Planning B (2010)
  13. Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice (2005)
  14. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (6)
  15. Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Say About IT Project Risk in the Public Sector
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  16. Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank (2005) Downloads View citations (9)

    See also Journal Article in Environment and Planning B (2007)
  17. Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (11)
  18. Survival of the Unfittest: Why the Worst Infrastructure Gets Built, And What We Can Do about It
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2009)
  19. Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers, University of California Transportation Center (2006) Downloads View citations (3)
  20. What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?"
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
    See also Journal Article in Transport Reviews (2003)
  21. Why Mass Media Matter to Planning Research: The Case of Megaprojects
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  22. Why Your IT Project Might Be Riskier Than You Think
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads

Journal Articles

2018

  1. Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation?
    World Development, 2018, 103, (C), 383-386 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2018)

2016

  1. Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2016, 32, (3), 360-390 Downloads View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
  2. The Fallacy of Beneficial Ignorance: A Test of Hirschman’s Hiding Hand
    World Development, 2016, 84, (C), 176-189 Downloads View citations (11)

2014

  1. Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development
    Energy Policy, 2014, 69, (C), 43-56 Downloads View citations (62)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2012

  1. Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases
    Transport Policy, 2012, 22, (C), 49-56 Downloads View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper (2015)
  2. Different cost performance: different determinants?
    Transport Policy, 2012, 22, (C), 88-95 Downloads View citations (3)

2010

  1. Lock-in and its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Investigating the Way in Which Lock-in Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns
    Environment and Planning B, 2010, 37, (5), 792-807 Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2010, 37, (5), 792-807 (2010) Downloads View citations (12)

    See also Working Paper (2013)

2009

  1. Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built--and what we can do about it
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2009, 25, (3), 344-367 Downloads View citations (39)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2008

  1. Response to Todd Landman
    Political Studies Review, 2008, 6, (2), 189-190 Downloads

2007

  1. Planning and design of large infrastructure projects
    Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2007, 34, (4), 576-577 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures
    Environment and Planning B, 2007, 34, (4), 578-597 Downloads View citations (18)
    Also in Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2007, 34, (4), 578-597 (2007) Downloads View citations (22)

    See also Working Paper (2013)

2006

  1. Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure
    Transportation Planning and Technology, 2006, 30, (1), 9-30 Downloads
    See also Working Paper (2013)
  2. Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice
    European Planning Studies, 2006, 16, (1), 3-21 Downloads

2005

  1. Do Road Planners Produce More ‘Honest Numbers’ than Rail Planners? An Analysis of Accuracy in Road‐traffic Forecasts in Cities versus Peripheral Regions
    Transport Reviews, 2005, 26, (5), 537-555 Downloads
  2. Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts
    Transport Reviews, 2005, 26, (1), 1-24 Downloads View citations (4)
  3. Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling
    Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2005, 39, (6), 522-530 Downloads View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2004

  1. A Perestroikan Straw Man Answers Back: David Laitin and Phronetic Political Science
    Politics & Society, 2004, 32, (3), 389-416 Downloads

2003

  1. How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?
    Transport Reviews, 2003, 23, (1), 71-88 Downloads View citations (60)
  2. What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?
    Transport Reviews, 2003, 24, (1), 3-18 Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2002

  1. Big decisions, big risks. Improving accountability in mega projects
    Transport Policy, 2002, 9, (2), 143-154 Downloads View citations (12)

1997

  1. Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects
    Transport Policy, 1997, 4, (3), 141-146 Downloads View citations (30)

Edited books

2014

  1. Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings, vol Two volume set
    Books, Edward Elgar Publishing Downloads View citations (1)

2008

  1. Decision-Making on Mega-Projects
    Books, Edward Elgar Publishing Downloads View citations (2)

Chapters

2013

  1. Mega-projects’ cost performance and lock-in: problems and solutions
    Chapter 15 in International Handbook on Mega-Projects, 2013, pp 333-355 Downloads

2011

  1. Delusion, Deception and Corruption in Major Infrastructure Projects: Causes, Consequences and Cures
    Chapter 3 in International Handbook on the Economics of Corruption, Volume Two, 2011 Downloads View citations (1)

2008

  1. Introduction: Scope of the Book
    Chapter 1 in Decision-Making on Mega-Projects, 2008 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Public Planning of Mega-Projects: Overestimation of Demand and Underestimation of Costs
    Chapter 7 in Decision-Making on Mega-Projects, 2008 Downloads View citations (5)
 
Page updated 2019-06-18