Details about Bent Flyvbjerg

Access statistics for papers by Bent Flyvbjerg.

Last updated 2022-12-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pfl122

Working Papers

2022

1. How to Solve Big Problems: Bespoke Versus Platform Strategies
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article How to solve big problems: bespoke versus platform strategies, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited (2022) View citations (2) (2022)
2. The Empirical Reality of IT Project Cost Overruns: Discovering A Power-Law Distribution
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (6)
3. Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview
   Papers, arXiv.org

2021

4. Four Ways to Scale Up: Smart, Dumb, Forced, and Fumbled
   Papers, arXiv.org
5. The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (8)
   See also Journal Article The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It, Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press (2021) View citations (8) (2021)

2020

6. Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Regression to the tail: Why the Olympics blow up, Environment and Planning A (2021) View citations (6) (2021)

2019

7. Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
8. Report for the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project
   Papers, arXiv.org

2018

9. Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which Is the Better Explanation?
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation?, World Development, Elsevier (2018) View citations (4) (2018)
10. Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (2)

2017

11. Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (7)
12. Do Classics Exist in Megaproject Management?
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (4)
13. Reference Class Forecasting for Hong Kong's Major Roadworks Projects
    Papers, arXiv.org

2016

14. Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (85)
    See also Journal Article Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited (2016) View citations (87) (2016)
15. The Oxford Olympics Study 2016: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (23)

2015

16. Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases, Transport Policy, Elsevier (2012) View citations (35) (2012)
17. Different Cost Performance: Different Determinants? The Case of Cost Overruns in Dutch Transportation Infrastructure Projects
    Papers, arXiv.org
18. The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (7)

2014

19. Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (139)
    See also Journal Article Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development, Energy Policy, Elsevier (2014) View citations (128) (2014)
20. What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and Why: An Overview
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (162)

2013

21. Comparison of Capital Costs per Route-Kilometre in Urban Rail
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (5)
22. Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure, Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals (2006) (2006)
23. Cost overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (5)
24. Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
25. Delusions of Success: Comment on Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman
    Papers, arXiv.org
26. Double Whammy - How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent
    Papers, arXiv.org
27. Five Misunderstandings About Case-Study Research
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (6)
28. From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
29. Geographical Variation in Project Cost Performance: The Netherlands versus Worldwide
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article Geographical variation in project cost performance: the Netherlands versus worldwide, Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier (2012) View citations (26) (2012)
30. How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
31. How Planners Deal with Uncomfortable Knowledge: The Dubious Ethics of the American Planning Association
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (6)
32. Lock-in and Its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects. Investigating the Way in Which Lock-in Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article Lock-in and its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Investigating the Way in Which Lock-in Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns, Environment and Planning B (2010) View citations (19) (2010)
33. Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier (2005) View citations (36) (2005)
34. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (8)
35. Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Say About IT Project Risk in the Public Sector
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
36. Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
    Also in Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank (2005) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures, Environment and Planning B (2007) View citations (61) (2007)
37. Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (31)
38. Survival of the Unfittest: Why the Worst Infrastructure Gets Built, And What We Can Do about It
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built--and what we can do about it, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited (2009) View citations (83) (2009)
39. Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)
    Also in University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers, University of California Transportation Center (2006) View citations (4)
40. What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?"
    Papers, arXiv.org
    See also Journal Article What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?, Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals (2003) View citations (13) (2003)
41. Why Mass Media Matter to Planning Research: The Case of Megaprojects
    Papers, arXiv.org
42. Why Your IT Project Might Be Riskier Than You Think
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (1)

Journal Articles

2022

1. How to solve big problems: bespoke versus platform strategies
   Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2022, 38, (2), 338-368 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper How to Solve Big Problems: Bespoke Versus Platform Strategies, Papers (2022) View citations (2) (2022)

2021

2. Regression to the tail: Why the Olympics blow up
   Environment and Planning A, 2021, 53, (2), 233-260 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up, Papers (2020) View citations (4) (2020)
3. The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It
   Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2021, 12, (3), 395-419 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It, Papers (2021) View citations (8) (2021)

2019

4. On de-bunking “Fake News” in the post-truth era: How to reduce statistical error in research
   Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2019, 126, (C), 409-411 View citations (1)

2018

5. Five things you should know about cost overrun
   Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2018, 118, (C), 174-190 View citations (21)
6. Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation?
   World Development, 2018, 103, (C), 383-386 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which Is the Better Explanation?, Papers (2018) View citations (4) (2018)

2017

7. Damming the rivers of the Amazon basin
   Nature, 2017, 546, (7658), 363-369 View citations (17)

2016

8. Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China
   Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2016, 32, (3), 360-390 View citations (87)
   See also Working Paper Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China, Papers (2016) View citations (85) (2016)
9. The Fallacy of Beneficial Ignorance: A Test of Hirschman’s Hiding Hand
   World Development, 2016, 84, (C), 176-189 View citations (22)

2014

10. Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development
    Energy Policy, 2014, 69, (C), 43-56 View citations (128)
    See also Working Paper Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development, Papers (2014) View citations (139) (2014)

2012

11. Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases
    Transport Policy, 2012, 22, (C), 49-56 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases, Papers (2015) (2015)
12. Different cost performance: different determinants?
    Transport Policy, 2012, 22, (C), 88-95 View citations (30)
13. Geographical variation in project cost performance: the Netherlands versus worldwide
    Journal of Transport Geography, 2012, 24, (C), 324-331 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper Geographical Variation in Project Cost Performance: The Netherlands versus Worldwide, Papers (2013) (2013)

2010

14. Lock-in and its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Investigating the Way in Which Lock-in Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns
    Environment and Planning B, 2010, 37, (5), 792-807 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper Lock-in and Its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects. Investigating the Way in Which Lock-in Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns, Papers (2013) (2013)

2009

15. Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built--and what we can do about it
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2009, 25, (3), 344-367 View citations (83)
    See also Working Paper Survival of the Unfittest: Why the Worst Infrastructure Gets Built, And What We Can Do about It, Papers (2013) (2013)

2008

16. Response to Todd Landman
    Political Studies Review, 2008, 6, (2), 189-190

2007

17. Planning and Design of Large Infrastructure Projects
    Environment and Planning B, 2007, 34, (4), 576-577
18. Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures
    Environment and Planning B, 2007, 34, (4), 578-597 View citations (61)
    See also Working Paper Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures, Papers (2013) View citations (1) (2013)

2006

19. Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure
    Transportation Planning and Technology, 2006, 30, (1), 9-30
    See also Working Paper Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure, Papers (2013) (2013)
20. Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice
    European Planning Studies, 2006, 16, (1), 3-21

2005

21. Do Road Planners Produce More ‘Honest Numbers’ than Rail Planners? An Analysis of Accuracy in Road‐traffic Forecasts in Cities versus Peripheral Regions
    Transport Reviews, 2005, 26, (5), 537-555
22. Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts
    Transport Reviews, 2005, 26, (1), 1-24 View citations (4)
23. Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling
    Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2005, 39, (6), 522-530 View citations (36)
    See also Working Paper Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling, Papers (2013) (2013)

2004

24. A Perestroikan Straw Man Answers Back: David Laitin and Phronetic Political Science
    Politics & Society, 2004, 32, (3), 389-416 View citations (1)

2003

25. How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?
    Transport Reviews, 2003, 23, (1), 71-88 View citations (104)
26. What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?
    Transport Reviews, 2003, 24, (1), 3-18 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?", Papers (2013) (2013)

2002

27. Big decisions, big risks. Improving accountability in mega projects
    Transport Policy, 2002, 9, (2), 143-154 View citations (26)

1997

28. Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects
    Transport Policy, 1997, 4, (3), 141-146 View citations (45)

Books

2003

1. Megaprojects and Risk
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (302)

Edited books

2014

1. Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings, vol Two volume set
   Books, Edward Elgar Publishing View citations (7)

2008

2. Decision-Making on Mega-Projects
   Books, Edward Elgar Publishing View citations (61)

Chapters

2013

1. Mega-projects’ cost performance and lock-in: problems and solutions
   Chapter 15 in International Handbook on Mega-Projects, 2013, pp 333-355

2011

2. Delusion, Deception and Corruption in Major Infrastructure Projects: Causes, Consequences and Cures
   Chapter 3 in International Handbook on the Economics of Corruption, Volume Two, 2011 View citations (1)

2009

3. Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development
   Palgrave Macmillan View citations (2)

2008

4. Introduction: Scope of the Book
   Chapter 1 in Decision-Making on Mega-Projects, 2008 View citations (1)
5. Public Planning of Mega-Projects: Overestimation of Demand and Underestimation of Costs
   Chapter 7 in Decision-Making on Mega-Projects, 2008 View citations (5)