Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage

Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Andi Garavaglia and Andreas Leed

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable projects, risk of cost overrun was found to be 202% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of an overrun above 202%. Based on a reference class of 200 past, comparable projects, risk of schedule overrun was found to be 104% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of overrun above 104%. Cost risk and schedule risk are both substantial for nuclear waste storage projects.

Date: 2019-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1901.11123

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