Globalization? Trade War? A Counterbalance Perspective

Xingwei Hu

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: The embrace of globalization and protectionism among economies has ebbed and flowed over the past few decades. These fluctuations call for quantitative analytics to help countries improve their trade policies. Changing attitudes toward globalization also imply that the best trade policies vary over time and are country-specific. We argue that the imports and exports of all economies constitute a counterbalanced network where conflict and cooperation are two sides of the same coin. Quantitative competitiveness is then formulated for each country using a network counterbalance equilibrium. A country could improve its relative strength in the network by embracing globalization, protectionism, trade collaboration, or conflict. This paper presents some necessary conditions for globalization and trade wars, evaluates their side effects, derives national bargaining powers, identifies appropriate targets for conflict or collaboration, and recommends fair resolutions for trade conflicts. Data and events from 2000 to 2019 support these conditions.

Date: 2020-09, Revised 2024-11
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