On the Behavioral Consequences of Reverse Causality

Ran Spiegler ()

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Reverse causality is a common causal misperception that distorts the evaluation of private actions and public policies. This paper explores the implications of this error when a decision maker acts on it and therefore affects the very statistical regularities from which he draws faulty inferences. Using a quadratic-normal parameterization and applying the Bayesian-network approach of Spiegler (2016), I demonstrate the subtle equilibrium effects of a certain class of reverse-causality errors, with illustrations in diverse areas: development psychology, social policy, monetary economics and IO. In particular, the decision context may protect the decision maker from his own reverse-causality causal error. That is, the cost of reverse-causality errors can be lower for everyday decision makers than for an outside observer who evaluates their choices.

Date: 2021-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic
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http://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.12218 Latest version (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: On the behavioral consequences of reverse causality (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2110.12218

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