Optimal transmission expansion modestly reduces decarbonization costs of U.S. electricity

Rangrang Zheng, Greg Schivley, Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Matthias Fripp and Michael Roberts

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Solar and wind power are cost-competitive with fossil fuels, yet their intermittent nature presents challenges. Significant temporal and geographic differences in land, wind, and solar resources suggest that long-distance transmission could be particularly beneficial. Using a detailed, open-source model, we analyze optimal transmission expansion jointly with storage, generation, and hourly operations across the three primary interconnects in the United States. Transmission expansion offers far more benefits in a high-renewable system than in a system with mostly conventional generation. Yet while an optimal nationwide plan would have more than triple current interregional transmission, transmission decreases the cost of a 100% clean system by only 7% compared to a plan that relies solely on current transmission. Expanding capacity only within existing interconnects can achieve most of these savings. Adjustments to energy storage and generation mix can leverage the current interregional transmission infrastructure to build a clean power system at a reasonable cost.

Date: 2024-02, Revised 2025-03
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