Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity

Manish Jha, Jialin Qian, Michael Weber and Baozhong Yang

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We use generative AI to extract managerial expectations about their economic outlook from 120,000+ corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, and employment up to 10 quarters ahead, beyond existing measures like survey forecasts. Moreover, industry and firm-level measures provide valuable information about sector-specific and individual firm activities. A composite measure that integrates managerial expectations about firm, industry, and macroeconomic conditions further significantly improves the forecasting power and predictive horizon of national and sectoral growth. Our findings show managerial expectations offer unique insights into economic activity, with implications for both macroeconomic and microeconomic decision-making.

Date: 2024-10, Revised 2025-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-cmp and nep-tid
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