Are penalty shootouts better than a coin toss? Evidence from international club football in Europe

L\'aszl\'o Csat\'o and D\'ora Gr\'eta Petr\'oczy

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Abstract: Penalty shootouts play a crucial role in the knockout stage of major football tournaments. Their importance has been substantially increased from the 2021/22 season, when the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) scrapped the away goals rule. Our paper examines whether the outcome of a penalty shootout can be predicted in UEFA club competitions. Based on all shootouts between 2000 and 2025, we find no evidence for the effect of the kicking order, the field of the match, or psychological momentum. In contrast to previous results, we do not detect any (positive) relationship between relative team strength and shootout success using differences in Elo ratings. Consequently, penalty shootouts seem to be close to a coin toss in top European club football.

Date: 2025-10, Revised 2026-01
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