SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality

Aditya Goenka, Lin Liu and Manh Hung Nguyen
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Lin Liu: University of Liverpool

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of Birmingham

Abstract: This paper studies an optimal growth model where health expenditures (alternatively lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease when there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics and infections can cause disease related mortality. We study implications of two different SIR models - with early mortality and with late mortality from the disease - on health outcomes, optimal response and on economic outcomes in equilibrium. We characterize the steady states and show how these vary when varying mortality. The outcomes are sensitive to the specification of the epidemiology model. We also study sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality - a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable.

Keywords: Infectious diseases; Covid-19; SIR model; mortality; sufficiency conditions; economic growth; lockdown; prevention; health expenditure. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 D15 D50 D63 E13 E22 I10 I15 I18 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2020-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro, nep-hea, nep-isf and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://repec.cal.bham.ac.uk/pdf/20-25.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality (2021)
Working Paper: SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality (2021)
Working Paper: SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality (2021)
Working Paper: SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bir:birmec:20-25

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