EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality

Aditya Goenka (), Lin Liu and Manh Hung Nguyen ()
Additional contact information
Lin Liu: Unknown

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: This paper studies an optimal growth model where there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics which can lead to mortality. Health expenditures (alternatively intensity of lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease. We study implications of two different ways to model the disease related mortality - early and late in infection mortality - on the equilibrium health and economic outcomes. In the former, increasing mortality reduces infections by decreasing the fraction of infectives in the population, while in the latter the fraction of infectives increases. We characterize the steady states and the outcomes depend in the way mortality is modeled. With early mortality, increasing mortality leads to higher equilibrium per capita output and consumption while in the late mortality model these decrease. We establish sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality - a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable.

Keywords: Prevention; Lockdown; Economic growth; Sufficiency conditions; Mortality; SIR model; Covid-19; Infectious diseases; Health expenditure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-evo, nep-gro and nep-hea
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03170689
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6) Track citations by RSS feed

Published in Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, 2021, 93, ⟨10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102476⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03170689/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality (2020) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03170689

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102476

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().

 
Page updated 2022-01-16
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03170689