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SIR Economic Epidemiological Models with Disease Induced Mortality

Aditya Goenka (), Lin Liu and Manh Hung Nguyen ()

No 20-1150, TSE Working Papers from Toulouse School of Economics (TSE)

Abstract: This paper studies an optimal growth model where health expenditures (alternatively lockdowns) can be made to reduce infectivity of the disease when there is an infectious disease with SIR dynamics and infections can cause disease related mortality. We study implications of two different SIR models - with early mortality and with late mortality from the disease - on health outcomes, optimal response and on economic outcomes in equilibrium. We characterize the steady states and show how these vary when varying mortality. The outcomes are sensitive to the specification of the epidemiology model. We also study sufficiency conditions and provide the first results in economic models with SIR dynamics with and without disease related mortality - a class of models which are non-convex and have endogenous discounting so that no existing results are applicable.

Keywords: Infectious diseases; Covid-19; SIR model; mortality; sufficiency conditions; economic growth; lockdown; prevention; health expenditure. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E13 E22 D15 D50 D63 I10 I18 O41 C61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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