The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows

Simone Bertoli, Herbert Brücker and Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga

No 201321, Working Papers from CERDI

Abstract: The European crisis has diverted migration flows away from countries affected by the recession towards Germany. The diversion process creates a challenge for traditional discrete-choice models that assume that only bilateral factors account for dyadic migration rates. This paper shows how taking into account the sequential nature of migration decisions leads to write the bilateral migration rate as a function of expectations about the evolution of economic conditions in alternative destinations. Empirically, we incorporate 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable capturing forward-looking expectations and apply our model to an empirical analysis of migration from the countries of the European Economic Association to Germany in the period 2006-2012. We show that disregarding alternative destinations leads to substantial biases in the estimation of the determinants of migration rates.

JEL-codes: F22 J61 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm, nep-eur and nep-mig
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (49)

Published in Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2016, pages 61-72
Published in Regional Science and Urban Economics

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Related works:
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1467

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