The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows

Herbert Brücker, Simone Bertoli and Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga

VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: The analysis of how the economic crisis in Europe has reshaped migration flows faces two challenges: (i) the confounding influence of correlated changes in the attractiveness of alternative destinations, and (ii) the role of rapidly changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first challenge by controlling for multilateral resistance to migration, and the second one by incorporating 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable in a study of European bilateral migration flows to Germany between 2006 and 2012. We show that, while expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 percent of the observed increase in German gross migration inflows.

JEL-codes: F22 J61 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur and nep-mig
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (47)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
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