The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows

Simone Bertoli, Herbert Brücker () and Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga
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Herbert Brücker: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg

No 7170, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: The analysis of how the economic crisis in Europe has reshaped migration flows faces two challenges: (i) the confounding influence of correlated changes in the attractiveness of alternative destinations, and (ii) the role of rapidly changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first challenge by controlling for multilateral resistance to migration, and the second one by incorporating 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable in a study of European bilateral migration flows to Germany between 2006 and 2012. We show that, while expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 percent of the observed increase in German gross migration inflows.

Keywords: diversion; multiple destinations; international migration; expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J61 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 56 pages
Date: 2013-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur and nep-mig
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (64)

Published - revised version published as 'The European Crisis and Migration to Germany' in: Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2016, 60, 61–72

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Related works:
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
Working Paper: The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows (2013)
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