Simulating Travel Reliability

Robert Noland, Kenneth Small (), Pia Maria Koskenoja and Xuehao Chu

University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers from University of California Transportation Center

Abstract: We present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. The supply model describes congestion technology and exogenously specifies the probability, severity, and duration of non-recurrent events. From these, given traffic volumes, a distribution of travel times is generated, from which a mean, a standard deviation, and a probability of arriving late are calculated. The demand model uses these outputs from the supply model as independent variables and choices are forecast using sample enumeration and a synthetic sample of work start times and free flow travel times. The process is iterated until a stable congestion pattern is achieved. We report on the components of expected cost and the average travel delay for selected simulations.

Keywords: Social; and; Behavioral; Sciences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997-11-01
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Related works:
Journal Article: Simulating travel reliability (1998)
Working Paper: Simulating Travel Reliability (1996)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt30w220k0

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