The Strait of Hormuz, Towards a Long-Lasting Solution

Massoud Karshenas, Hashem Pesaran, Ron Smith and M. Hashem Pesaran

No 12633, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has once again exposed a structural weakness at the heart of the global energy system. Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through this narrow waterway. Any interruption carries immediate and far-reaching economic consequences. The question is not simply how to restore access, but how to ensure that such disruptions do not recur. This paper provides an economic model towards a durable resolution of security of shipping through Persian Gulf.

Keywords: shipping; transit costs; global supply chains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F68 G22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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